Some numbers behind the headline figures The chart is taken from the detailed data in today’s Populus Poll for the Times and shows current voting intentions linked to what respondents said they did at the 2005 General Election. It focuses solely on those who voted last time – a segment that, surely, must be more likely to vote at the next general election than those, who for whatever reason, were non-voters. The Tories are retaining 97% of their 2005 vote…
UKPollingReport Could the tide turn yet again? One of the lessons that we have learned in the past two years is that the most dangerous assumption you can make is that things will go on as they are. After what, with the benefit of hindsight, was a temporary blip in late November and December all the polls have turned and all are suggesting that Gordon Brown will lead Labour to defeat at the general election – now a maximum of…
CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1) LABOUR 28% (-5) LIB DEMS 18% (+3) ..and the LDs get a 3 point boost The Populus survey for tomorrow’s Times will be published officially in a few minutes but I’ve just been given the tip off about the numbers from a normally reliable source. [The figures have now been confirmed – see the Times story here] So Populus becomes the third pollster to be showing Labour back in the 20s – further evidence that the Brown…
Populus September 2008 What should we conclude from these numbers? The above poll questions on voter motivations are ones that are often included in the parties’ own private surveys but you don’t often see them in published polls. As far as I can see the last time the findings appeared was in the September 2008 Populus poll for the Times and my understanding is that more up-to-date private research suggests that the broad picture has not changed much. The big…
Wikipedia Are they underestimating the challenge of LD incumbents? If you are thinking of betting on the Tories to get a reasonable-sized majority at the next election then can I suggest that you make two clicks. Firstly you should go to UKPollingReport’s list of Tory targets with the swing required and count up how many Lib Dem incumbents have to be toppled for Cameron to get into working majority territory. You’ll find that twenty-eight of the party’s top 128 targets…
CONSERVATIVES 43% (nc) LABOUR 36% (-2) LIB DEMS 13% (+1) But are these seats so different from the norm? The figures above are taken Channel 4’s unique marginals poll and is the third of a series that has been commissioned by the channel. The changes shown are on the last such survey published in October after the bail-out bounce. Fieldwork finished yesterday and the sample consisted of 2005 electors in in 60 seats where Labour’s majority (on the new boundaries)…
How are the parties doing in the seats where it matters most? Later today I’m hoping that we’ll see the third in a polling series which is looking at the next election from a very specific viewpoint – what’s happening in the LAB>CON marginals where Labour is defending majorities of between 6 per cent and 14 per cent. For unlike normal voting intention polls where electors in the 600 or so seats across England, Scotland, and Wales can be involved,…
Will even loyalists waste time over such banalities? The above is reproduced from today’s pages on LabourList and reports on a new feature – a weekly bottle of champagne to the person writing the comment of the week. The prize is not a bad idea of itself and it should get a bit of interest – but just read this week’s winner. That’s hardly thought provoking stuff and if this is the best they’ve got then what does it say…