SkyNews Poll Tracker In which month do you think that at least two of the pollsters – MORI, ICM, YouGov, Populus and ComRes – will report Labour closer than 9%? April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 or beyond Give PB your assessment in this online survey We’ve had lots of debate recently about whether there could be…
..and only 18% want to stick with Labour The Lib Dems were delighted on Tuesday when the latest Guardian ICM poll had them at 20% – well above the shares from other pollsters including, on that very day, just 14% with Ipsos-MORI. But I wonder how many in the party, particularly those at the top who occasionally give the impression that they are politics primarily because they hate the Tories, are going to view responses from those same LD supporters…
Voting in the PB March 2009 Prediction closed at 6pm and above are the charts showing the number of seats site users believe each of the parties will get at the election. In retrospect I think that we tried to do too much and perhaps ought to have just left it with the three polls featured above. For it was noticeable how voting dropped off as you went down the page. The first survey on election party leaders attracted nearly…
Click here to watch Why’s the LD schools spokesman getting it so wrong? You’ll have to indulge me if you think I’ve banged on about this too much – but I have a real “bee in my bonnet” about the phoney invalid polling comparisons that journos, pundits and politicians are rushing to make when they compare the polling position at the moment with what went on in 1996/97. And the person who has got under my skin this afternoon is…
Ipsos-MORI Is it because Cameron has been out of the news? When the MORI poll came out this morning my initial reaction was that what had driven the decline in the Tory share and increase in the Labour one was a big increase in the number of the latter’s supporters saying they were “100% certain to vote”. We have now just got the detailed data and I was wrong. The level of overall Tory support in the poll was not…
Mail Online Or will it just keep the story going? The Brown apology story moves on a step this morning with comments by the PM in a Guardian interview in which he admits that that he could have taken tougher action to curb the financial markets during he period as Chancellor. I think the Mail story above has got the sense right – yes there are words of apology there but it’s arguable whether he’s gone far enough. Whatever it’s…
ICM Is the idea that “governments always recover” a myth? We are hearing it all the time at the moment from journalists, politicos and pundits who should at least have the basic ability to check some simple facts before publishing wild statements – the idea that governments “always” recover in the polls as we get close to the general election. One of the problems, as discussed on the previous thread, is that many recall the unreformed polls of the 1990s…
When can you make valid historical poll comparisons? Almost everyday, it seems, someone on a thread or a journalist will seek to make polling comparisons with the 1990s and each time it happens myself and others will try to explain which this is not as easy as it appears. For there has been such a revolution in the UK polling industry since the aftermath of the 1992 general election that you have to be very careful when you point to…