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Category: Polls

ComRes piles the gloom on Gord

ComRes piles the gloom on Gord

ComRes home-page CON 40(-5) LAB 21(-5) LD 18 (nc) Look how opinion has changed in the last 18 days? The fieldwork for the Indy on Sunday’s poll took place on Wednesday and Thursday and the first findings (non-voting related) from the poll were, I believe, released on the Daily Politics programme yesterday. The comparisons are with the last voting intention poll from the firm where the fieldwork finished on April 26th. Again, like with the non-registered BPIX, we see a…

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Can standard voting intention responses mislead?

Can standard voting intention responses mislead?

PoliticsHome Sept 08 Look at what happens when a more refined approach is used Away from expenses and sleaze for a moment let’s look at a polling issue that’s been churning over in my head. It is possible that pollsters might be being mis-led when they ask standard voting intention questions? We know the sort of thing – “If there was a general election tomorrow which party would you vote for – the Conservative, Labour, the Liberal Democrats or some…

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Is Brown now having to play catch-up?

Is Brown now having to play catch-up?

Has Number 10 been wrong-footed again? Judging by the tone of much of the coverage this morning the Cameron moves yesterday have been fairly well received and there’s little doubt that Brown’s comments last night that all MPs’ receipts over four years must be scrutinised by an independent group was his way of countering it. He denied it, of course, but he needed to do something ahead of today’s PMQs which kick off in the house at noon. He’s helped…

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Is this simply about name recognition?

Is this simply about name recognition?

PoliticsHome What do we think of the PH/Evening Standard poll? There’s a new poll tonight by PoliticsHome for the Evening Standard on who the public would prefer as the next Labour leader. The figures are in the chart above. The shares were: STRAW 16%: JOHNSON 13%: MILIBAND-D 8%: HARMAN 6%:PURNELL 1%: MILIBAND-E 1%: CRUDDAS 1%: SMITH 1%: MCDONNELL 1%: COOPER 1%: BURNHAM 1%. Compared with the last the PH poll there’s been an increase in support for Johnson and Harman…

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Is this the 96/97 measure to test Brown against?

Is this the 96/97 measure to test Brown against?

ICM Guardian polls Can Labour stay above 30% for the next year? Yesterday I had lunch in the “Westminster village” and it still comes as a surprise to hear apparently sophisticated political pundits not being fully aware that polling has changed dramatically since Tony Blair coming to power in 1997. Comparisons from that era with today are simply not valid – unless the pollster is ICM which is the only one still operating from then that has a consistent methodology….

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Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

PoliticsHome100 But is he good value at 4/1? Two developments during the day on the Labour leadership – the PH100 panel of MPs, senior political journalists, key party strategists and think tank leaders – came out overwhelmingly to say that Alan Johnson would pose the biggest treat to the Tories. A total of 70% of those who took part backed the health secretary. At the same time on the betting markets Johnson moved into the favourite slot for the first…

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Is it stupid to say “it’s the economy stupid”?

Is it stupid to say “it’s the economy stupid”?

Is John Curtice right about what moves the polls The phrase “It’s the economy stupid” has been quoted time and time again since being first used by the Bill Clinton campaign in 1992 that it’s almost accepted as gospel by many who observe and comment on the political process. Indeed the great hope that Gordon Brown and Labour are clinging onto is that by the time that the general election finally happens then the economy will have got past the…

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How are the Lib Dem “anti-Tories” going to view this?

How are the Lib Dem “anti-Tories” going to view this?

PoliticsHome 76% of Lib Dem voters want more collaboration with Tories The panel above summarises findings from the latest PoliticsHome poll on attitudes by supporters of the main parties to the collaboration that we saw on Wednesday between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives over the Ghurka issue. The precise question that was “Yesterday the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives voted together to defeat the government in a House of Commons vote on whether Gurkhas should be allowed to settle…

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