CON 43(+2)) LAB 26 (-1) LD 19(-1) But the changes are all within the margin of error The poll shares above are compared with the past ICM poll which was completed on July 11th and in the Guardian a couple of days later. Although the changes are small and all within the margin of error they will provide a little bit of a boost to Team Cameron and add to the gloom at Brown Central. I’m coming to the view…
We still await the first of August 2009
How dangerous for the Tories are his US comments on the NHS? It is no accident that in his first act following his return from holiday that David Cameron has emailed party supporters with a strong defence of the NHS. For he more than anybody realises that what is central to decontaminating the Tory brand is to get his party fully behind the health service. In speech after speech Cameron has stressed that the NHS is safe in Tory hands…
Is this why going negative is more effective? The YouTube from Labour’s unsuccessful 1970 re-election campaign is pretty feeble by modern standards but highlights a challenge faced by all governments when they seek re-election – how to campaign on their record? For in every general election people are looking forward and reeling off numbers about the past often does to resonate. It can sound tedious and boring and in any case who cares? What voters want to know is that…
Did Balls think the election was still on? While we are going though a very quiet period with almost no political betting going on I thought it worth concentrating further on that first week of October 2007 which we might look back upon as the period that defined Labour’s third term. The clash in the clip was of a discussion before the non-election announcement. What I find striking is how pumped up Ed Balls was – even more so than…
Is it all doom and gloom? I’ve just accepted an invitation to give my thoughts on the general election outcome at a fringe event at the Labour conference in Brighton. This will be the first time I’ve been and I like the idea that it’s at somebody else’s expense. There’s a similar session at the Tory conference the following week. What I’ve been pondering is what on earth can I say in Brighton that is not going to go down…
Was this the secret of his popularity as chancellor? With a bit of luck there might be a weekend poll and if there is it could help us to answer one of the questions that is often posed – does seeing Gordon Brown or not seeing him on our screens everyday have an impact on Labour’s opinion poll ratings? For both he and David Cameron have been away for getting on for a fortnight so any new survey would have…
Ipsos-MORI Why do only 2 in 100 voters think that the EU is an issue? The chart above is from latest MORI Issues Index and shows how concern about the Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO continues to be at very low levels – something that now concerns only 2% of those polled. The index has been compiled in the same way for 30 years and involves asking, completely unprompted, what interviewees think are the “most important issues facing Britain today“. There is no…