Is this the way to get Lib Dems to support Labour? There are poll findings out this morning from the Electoral Reform Society which might just offer a glimmer of hope to Brown Central in its bid for Labour not to be annihilated in the coming general election. For the response to questions bolted onto last week’s Sun YouGov poll seem to suggest that a promise of a referendum on voting reform might influence some voters – particularly those planning…
Shouldn’t they be joining the British Polling Council? It’s become almost a regular occurrence. ConservativeHome (or ContinuityIDS as we used to call it) carries out a survey and up pops Tim Montgomerie to talk as though he is the official voice of the party’s grass-roots. But how much attention should we give to his polling? Are samples, for instance, weighted in line with the known demographics of the audience he is testing? What weightings are used? What is the precise…
CON 42 (nc) LAB 28 (+2) LD 17 (-1) Another survey within the margin of error When we has the last YouGov survey in Monday’s Telegraph the main news was that Labour had dropped a couple of points. Well tonight’s poll for the Sun has Brown’s party back at 28% but the movement is well within the margin of error so you cannot conclude very much. Amongst other figures the paper reports: “Voters also say Mr Cameron would make a…
Is this where the battle is really going to take place? With all the recent focus on Scotland perhaps it’s worth reminding ourselves that the vast majority of the key battles that will determine whether Cameron’s Tories have a working majority are in England. Last time all but four Tory seats were in England. That total might increase next time if current poll trends remain but still it will be England that dominates. Of the 650 seats to be contested…
The 5/6 on Cameron being “the winner” looks good Quick off the mark Irish bookmakers PaddyPower has just opened a market on who in an independent poll will be judged the “winner” of the first TV debate of the general election campaign. I assume that all bets are void if the debate does not take place and you’ll get your stake back. I can see potential problems in settling the market if, for instance, separate pollsters rate it differently. This…
How dangerous is this September for Mr. Brown? The holidays are over, the party conferences are only a week or so away, and now we get the latest Lockerbie stories linking, in however a tenuous way, the prime minister. Mr. Brown hung on in the aftermath of the June 4th election disaster when Labour lost all of its remaining county councils, its national vote drop in the EU election dropping to just over 15% and what appeared to be a…
Article Updated 1855 Ipsos-Mori But remember what happened on May 1 1997? The above chart from MORI shows the changing to responses since 1997 to its economic optimism question which has been asked in the same manner for several decades. As can be seen there’s been a sharp rise in recent months and now the numbers are showing a net positive. Twelve years ago, just after the election, the trend continued and it touched +28 points – last month it…
A new electoral dynamic or an error? One of the frustrations of yesterday’s public holiday in most of the UK was that the Ipsos-MORI offices were not open and we have yet to see the detail and the analysis of the August political monitor which featured in Sunday’s Observer. For there was an intriguing line in Gaby Hinsliff’s report that went against all the received opinion on voting behaviour – that Labour do better with higher turnouts. Her comment that…