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Category: Polls

New polling analysis finds that enthusiasm for Brexit amongst working class voters is fading

New polling analysis finds that enthusiasm for Brexit amongst working class voters is fading

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Ammunition for those pressing for a change in LAB’s stance? The data in this chart above has been extrapolated by the political scientist, Prof Matt Goodwin and shows a pretty clear picture about the view on Brexit amongst the C2DEs – working class voters. It was this group, of course, that turned most strikingly against staying in the EU during the referendum campaign so any change here could have some political significance. I congratulate Matt on picking up the trend…

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That YouGov CON 4% lead poll looks very much out of line

That YouGov CON 4% lead poll looks very much out of line

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An outlier or the a sign of the trend? One of the problems with polling analysis is that the outliers tend to get much more publicity and attention than those that are broadly in line with everybody else. We saw that with the latest YouGov poll showeding Labour down at its lowest level since the general election four Points behind the Conservatives. So I thought it a good idea to try to put it into context by reproducing the latest…

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Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion

Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion

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Unsurprising titbit in here – an MP thinks the public have a view on ‘Chequers’. No. Answering a poll question. is not the same as having an actual opinion. https://t.co/IBS1uB1uW0 — James Morris (@jamesdmorris) August 10, 2018 The above tweet from former Labour Party pollster James Morris strikes me as being very apposite and goes to the heart of how we use polling outcomes. For unless there is some effort within the poll to ascertain how strongly people feel about…

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Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

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Picture: ConHome next Tory leader polling from December 2015 Following the recent ConHome polling Mike noted that Boris Johnson had once again become the favourite to be Theresa May’s successor but I’m going to explain why I’m continuing on laying Boris as next Tory leader/PM. 1) Polls are not immutable. Look at the picture atop this thread, back in December 2015 George Osborne had led the ConHome poll for a fifth successive month, polls are not static, they can rapidly…

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Just out: new PB/Polling Matters survey from Opinium on political ideologies/systems

Just out: new PB/Polling Matters survey from Opinium on political ideologies/systems

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PB /Opinium: Based on your knowledge, do you have a positive or negative view of the following political ideologies or systems? (net positive) Social Democracy +22Liberal Democracy +11Capitalism -7Socialism -11Libertarianism -14Communism -52Anarchism -55Fascism -67 — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) July 31, 2018 Headlines:1) These terms mean little to a good chunk of people2) Numbers rely on individual interpretation of what terms mean3) Social democracy most popular: more so than socialism4) But socialism & capitalism neck & neck4) Communism, fascism and anarchism…

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LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

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Wikipedia Just 8 years ago it won 41 Scottish seats – latest polls have that down to 1 The two GB polls over the weekend from Deltapoll and Opinium were both very good for LAB showing clear leads which weren’t down to its share increasing but the biggest shares for UKIP since GE2017. Certainly based on these figures if there was an early general election then Corbyn’s party would be in a strong position to become top party although an…

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If Trump bothers to read UK polls he won’t be pleased about how negatively he’s viewed in the UK

If Trump bothers to read UK polls he won’t be pleased about how negatively he’s viewed in the UK

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New YouGov polling on how Brits view Trump and Putin with party splits pic.twitter.com/Z9kQGlHrD2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 12, 2018 Both him & Putin viewed with almost the same level of unfavourably The football is over bar the third place play off and over the next couple of days the visit by the US President will dominate the media To mark this YouGov have just issued latest favourability ratings with a focus on Trump and Putin. I doubt if…

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Across the UK political divide voters regard Theresa May as a much better leader than Donald Trump

Across the UK political divide voters regard Theresa May as a much better leader than Donald Trump

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Comparing him with the PM There’s little enthusiasm someone like Trump as British PM To coincide with the Trump visit the latest ICM/Guardian poll has a series of findings examining the attitudes of British voters to the current incumbent at the White House. The responses to two of the questions are featured above with breakdown on party support. The top one, comparing Trump with TMay, is interesting in that generally backers of parties other than the Tories are reluctant to…

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