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Category: Polls

Should Clegg call for a withdrawal from Afghanistan?

Should Clegg call for a withdrawal from Afghanistan?

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Would this be as popular as their pre-2005 Iraq policy? One of the huge areas of government policy which is increasingly being opposed by voters is the continued deployment of British troops in Afghanistan. A YouGov poll for the Telegraph a week ago found a split of 26% in favour and 62% against to the question “Do you favour or oppose the continued deployment of British troops to Afghanistan?. Surprisingly the party whose voters are most in favour of pulling…

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What does this say about the Brown – Cameron battle?

What does this say about the Brown – Cameron battle?

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Woodnewton Associates How predictive are leader aprroval ratings six months out? The above table has been prepared by pollling analyst Mark Gill and appears on the Gary Gibbon blog on the Channel 4 website. Using Gallup Poll leader approval data for 1959 – 1974 and Ipsos MORI for 1979 – 2009 it seeks to show the extent to which those those numbers were predictive from six months out before the election. Just look at it election by election and then…

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Is Darling going to be Labour’s Geoffrey Howe?

Is Darling going to be Labour’s Geoffrey Howe?

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Mail Online Will the Chancellor be the one who brings down Brown? For someone like me who has been a Brown-sceptic for at least four years it is blindingly obvious that Labour would fare better in the coming election with a different leader. Mind you I felt the same in the run-up to Brown’s coronation in 2007 and I was wrong then about what Labour MPs would do. It seemed impossible, in my view, that those who wanted to keep…

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Could this be good news for Labour?

Could this be good news for Labour?

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FT online Or has the FT come to the wrong conclusion? There’s some research in the Financial Times from the the data service firm, Experian, that suggests that fewer people are being hit by the recession in the Labour held marginals than in other constituencies and the paper is speculating as to whether this is good news for Brown Central. The research shows that in those Labour seats which the party would lose with a swing of 6.5% – 8.25%…

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MORI: Tories 20% ahead in England

MORI: Tories 20% ahead in England

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CON 45 LAB 25 LD 18 Introducing an exclusive new polling service from Ipsos-MORI In a post last week I argued that what we needed was some England-specific polling because this is where the big battles will take place at the general election. England has 533 of the 650 seats that will be at stake and proportionately more marginals than in the others parts of the UK. Also in England there is not the SNP/PC dimension which adds to the…

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Is the default polling assumption still against Labour?

Is the default polling assumption still against Labour?

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Will this still stand when the results are known? With YouGov yesterday showing a Labour share of 28% while ComRes for the Indy this morning puts it at 24% I thought it might be useful to remind ourselves of the “PB Golden Rule of Polling”. This is based on the the polling record at every single major election since the 1980s where the survey with Labour in the least favourable position has been the best indicator of voting intention. There…

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Is this how Labour could be polling without Brown?

Is this how Labour could be polling without Brown?

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UKPollingReport Remember the days when a hung parliament seemed a certainty? With all the talk about Brown being ousted or stepping down I’ve just been asked by a journalist how I thought Labour would do in the polls if there was a different leader. My starting point was the table above – the polls from the five months before Brown became leader and Prime Minister on June 27 2007. Just looking at the actual numbers came as something as a…

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Does this poll show the impact of Farage/UKIP?

Does this poll show the impact of Farage/UKIP?

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CON 40 (-2) LAB 27 (-1) LD 18 (+1) Tories down to 40% with YouGov The online pollster, YouGov, which has taken such a dominant position in UK polling, has another survey out this morning which might cause some concern at Cameron Central. For although the party is still in the 40s it is only just there and the lead over Labour is down to its lowest since June. We have not got details of the fieldwork period or a…

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