Ipsos-MORI October 2009 Issues table Is the evidence that voters don’t give a monkey’s I’ve raised this before and will raise it again – the EU and other issues relating to Europe are not things that get voters wound up. The polling suggests that this is very low down on the list of concerns. Above is the MORI issues index for October – a month that saw several days of the Lisbon treaty being the main political news when the…
ICM Nov 1-2 1996 How Gord would kill for 34% shares today! One of the challenges with trying to work out whether a Tory victory is a foregone conclusion is that the only modern parallel is Labour’s run up to the Tony Blair landslide in May 1997 – something that’s made much harder by big changes in polling practice and the fact that the only firm doing it now almost exactly as it was doing it then is ICM. Featured…
CON 42%(-2) LAB 25%(-2) LD 21%(+3) And Nick Clegg gets to just four points behind Another month goes by and Labour’s polling position remains dire with no respite in sight. For a new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph just being reported suggests that there’s been little change between the main parties since the last survey from the firm in the Guardian a week and a half ago. Both Labour and the Tories are down two with the Lib Dems…
1979 polling data is being made available online Part of my standard patter whenever I give talks about the coming election is that we are moving into what is almost uncharted territory. Changes of opinion on the scale that the polls are currently showing happen very rarely and, of course, there has been only one change of government in the past thirty years. One of the challenges for those who like betting on and predicting elections is that the only…
PaddyPower Can he keep the Tory lead to a minimum of 11%? We are nearly at the end of October and time to consider the PaddyPower market on what’s going to happen to the polls next month. Can the Tories sustain a lead of a minimum of 11 points in all the published polls from Populus, YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos-Mori and ICM in November? If you think they can then there’s a not unattractive evens bet available. When it first came…
Angus Reid Strategies Does Cameron’s plan make electoral sense? It’s one of those bits of received wisdom you often hear from political campaigners – you get a small but noticeable boost if your candidate is a woman particularly if she is the only one on the ballot. Well as part of a poll in the wake of the Tory all-women short-list row Angus Reid Strategies, who do PB’s monthly voting intention survey, have come up with a number of findings…
Ipsos-MORI The changing perceptions since Labour came to power The Ipsos-MORI issues index for October is just out and features, as it has done every month for more than a quarter of a century, the unprompted responses of interviewees when they are asked to list what they see as “the most important issues facing Britain today?” The chart I’ve singled out is, given the BNP and the associated publicity, is on immigration and race relations and shows how views have…
BNP Should we be worried about the polling scam?? Reproduced above is part of a page from the BNP website and sets out a scam aimed at both raising the party’s polling numbers and making money at the same time. The site spells it out: “..Despite recently getting two MEPs elected our support in Yougov polls has recently dropped to 3%. One of the main reasons people don’t vote for us is because they believe we are a wasted vote,…