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With just over six months to go until Brexit day YouGov looks where the public stands

With just over six months to go until Brexit day YouGov looks where the public stands

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1/ Public opinion has drifted slightly against Brexit. On average this year there has been a 3 point lead of those who think Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit over those who think Britain was right to do so https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/yaBm2gLrEP — YouGov (@YouGov) September 12, 2018 2/ While Theresa May comes in for constant criticism over the Brexit negotiations, few Brits (22-27%) actually think that a different leader would have done any better https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/RbjRgKG31O — YouGov (@YouGov)…

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Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan

Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan

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London Westminster voting intention: LAB: 48% (-7)CON: 26% (-7)LDEM: 15% (+6)GRN: 5% (+3)UKIP: 4% (+3) via @YouGov, 03 – 07 Seph/t @MileEndInst Chgs. w/ 2017 election result. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 10, 2018 Brexit, anti-Semitism, and crime all seem to be having an impact I think the collapse in the Tory and Lab vote shares is down to a mixture of Brexit not appealing to London and the anti-Semitism issues swirling around Labour. For me the most interesting aspect…

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Sweden sours? Will the far right make further inroads in Scandinavian social democracy?

Sweden sours? Will the far right make further inroads in Scandinavian social democracy?

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For the last 100 years, the Social Democrats have dominated Swedish politics.  They have been in government for all bar 22 of those years.  It used its hegemonic status to establish a social democratic culture that worked with the country’s Lutheran ethos and with business, and for a long time managed to preside over a successful and distinctive blend of high taxation supporting a strong social safety net and a dynamic economy. Their grip has been loosening for a generation. …

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Your regular reminder on why you should ignore self selecting polls (aka voodoo polls)

Your regular reminder on why you should ignore self selecting polls (aka voodoo polls)

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The above is screen grab from a ‘poll’ that The Press and Journal are conducting online about Scottish Independence. Any poll that involves self selection, has no weightings, allows multiple voting, and doesn’t publish data tables can be safely ignored. Because as in the tweet below these polls can be ‘gamed’ to favour one side making the findings even more unreliable. Why you should ignore voodoo polls. https://t.co/hcC0fyyr7F. Picture Via @CarlosD22428844. pic.twitter.com/f5QGvRakBV — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2018 As an…

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The latest Ipsos MORI finding should worry all politicians

The latest Ipsos MORI finding should worry all politicians

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Our #issuesindex has been running since 1974 – we rarely add new items unless there’s a clear change – this month in the top ten for the first time – lack of faith in government/politicians…(spontaneously mentioned by respondents). Data out tomorrow — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 29, 2018 We also have a brand new entrant for the top ten – 12% say "lack of faith in govt/politics" is a big problem. This is our first new code since 2014 and…

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Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

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Please indulge me as I take a minute today to complain about poll questions that ask people whether they'd be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if the candidate did X thing. — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 Things people are generally bad at:-explaining how they decide their votes-entertaining counterfactuals-understanding probability This asks them to do all three! — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 But the even bigger problem is that people aren't going to…

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A big August polling development has been the restoration of TMay’s double digit “best PM” lead

A big August polling development has been the restoration of TMay’s double digit “best PM” lead

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I love tables like the one from YouGov featured above showing the trend in responses to a political tracker question. This one is on who would make the best prime minister and what seems quite striking is that Theresa May has held up pretty well apart from July when her numbers slipped following the critical response to the Chequers agreement. The big mover, of course, has been the Labour leader Mr Corbyn who has seen a fair amount of slip…

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Just 19% of LAB voters believe Israel’s more to blame for the lack progress on Middle East peace than the Palestinians

Just 19% of LAB voters believe Israel’s more to blame for the lack progress on Middle East peace than the Palestinians

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Sure the Deltapoll for Prospect finds that three times as many LAB voters than CON ones blame Israel but it is the huge “both equally” numbers that are a surprise. Here as the chart shows there’s really not that much difference between supporters of the two main parties and the whole sample. This does suggest at the very minimum that this is far from the top of most people’s concerns. Given the polling it is hard to disagree with Martin…

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