There’s a new Angus Reid poll (not one that has been commissioned by PB) in which the following was put to respondents:- Here are some words that people may use to describe [Gordon Brown, David Cameron, Nick Clegg]. Please choose up to six words that you think describe him. The online survey had a sample of 2005 and took place on Tuesday and Wednesday. Further details can be found here. As far as I know voting intention questions were not…
Ipsos-MORI What does this say about the coming election? One of the great developments for political anoraks was the publication by Ipsos-MORI just before Christmas of historic polling data that has not been available online before. This covers MORI polls from 1977 onwards and means we have here on-line data from the last period in British politics when the Tories looked as thought they might take power. It’s a long time ago but because of the consistent way in which…
Should they be opening the bubbly at Cameron Towers? After an exciting few hours it now appears that the plot was restricted to the two former cabinet ministers and if any follow-up had been planned it seems to have gone plop. The outcome is that Labour will be going into the election with a leader who has the second lowest approval ratings in the party’s history. Only Michael Foot rated lower. Quite why the bulk of Labour MPs are reluctant…
Ipsos-MORI How good a pointer are these numbers? A lot is talked about polling comparisons between now and the run-up to the May 1997 general election when, of course, Mr. Blair won a landslide victory. It can be challenging finding comparable data because of the considerable changes in polling over the past thirteen years. The table above, however, is one where we can make a direct comparison because it’s based on MORI questions which have been asked in the same…
What does this say about current surveys? The table above shows all the published opinion polls in the January before the last election in May 2005 and compares them with what actually happened. First thing to note is the methodological changes that three of the firms have made which makes direct comparisons more difficult. YouGov introduced a new party ID weighting structure to deal with their pre-May 2005 tendency to over-state the Lib Dems at the expense of Labour. ComRes…
And could Cameron be creating hostages to fortune? Wow. What a busy morning. Is it going to be like this right through to the general election day whenever that is? What’s caught my eye is this Tory NHS poster and the way all the emphasis is put on Cameron – “I’ll cut the deficit. Not the NHS” Is this going to be a common element in other campaign material? Clearly this has been through the focus groups and reflects what…
CON 40% (40) LAB 30% (28) LD 17% (18) OTHERS 13% (14) And the Lib Dems slip a point The final poll of 2009, the December YouGov survey for the Telegraph, is in the paper the morning and shows margin of error changes for Labour and the Lib Dems. The Tories stay doggedly on 40%. Labour will be pleased though to have closed the gap a bit. It’s the LAB-LD interaction that seems to be key with the firm. When…
New Statesman What do we make of Kellner’s assessments? There’s a good assessment of the scale of the challenge facing Labour in the latest News Statesman from the president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, in which he examines the elements behind the recent revival in the party’s hopes. Kellner’s themes will be familiar to PB regulars. “The Conservatives’ poll lead has been shrinking.” “Well, up to a point….One much-reported MORI poll, in November, put the lead at just 6 points, but…