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After 30 years the curtains close on regular Guardian/ICM polls

After 30 years the curtains close on regular Guardian/ICM polls

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The longest lasting poll series in British politics comes to an end. This is something of a sad moment in British politics. The longest lasting polling series, ICM for the Guardian, has come to an end after a total of 30 years. Polls have been running from the firm in the paper at least monthly since January 1989 when ICM replaced Marplan as the paper’s voting intention provider. The first one, as seen in the chart above, was in January…

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This questionnaire on the “Values and Identity” clans of GB is well worth doing

This questionnaire on the “Values and Identity” clans of GB is well worth doing

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There's an online questionnaire here to find out which "value clan" you belong to https://t.co/WEX6o88OAA pic.twitter.com/aIIz2vJe8D — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) October 26, 2018 If you haven’t done so already check this out for yourself here. Essentially this is a different approach to identifying voters which has been put together by the pollster BMG and academics at Bristol and Manchester. Both David Herdson and I came out as Orange bookers. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

TMay’s great current strength is that there’s little conviction that anyone else could do better

TMay’s great current strength is that there’s little conviction that anyone else could do better

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So another day of Theresa May’s leadership begins and no doubt she will be under pressure yet again by her party and maybe even the official opposition about her stance and approach to Brexit. Later she’s facing the Conservative backbench 1922 committee of which there was some overblown talk over the weekend off this being a “show trial.” That of itself illustrated the schism within the party. Well the rhetoric has been toned down a fair bit and the PM…

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LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating Corbyn as “best PM”

LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating Corbyn as “best PM”

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His 50% LAB voter rating compares with 80% of GE2017 Tories for May While all the focus this week has been on TMay’s chances of survival the PM and her party can take comfort in the latest “Best PM” ratings from YouGov in which those polled are given just two options – her and Corbyn. In recent weeks TMay has been regaining her position and is now up from a low of 31% overall naming her to 38%. Corbyn is…

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A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

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The most recent GB wide opinion polls, as collated by Wikipedia. https://t.co/XJhbZIFOjo pic.twitter.com/PK3Ng1vZTl — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 13, 2018 History suggests assuming Kippers will strongly back the Tories when UKIP don’t stand is a mistake. Since the announcement of the Chequers deal in July UKIP have experienced a bit of a polling surge with some polls having them polling 7% and 8% but generally in the 4% to 6% range. I’m expecting UKIP at the next general election will repeat…

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The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

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So which pollsters’ numbers do you prefer Conference season is now over and we now face the final few months before Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. UK politics is set to go through a period of turmoil and there’s not an insignificant chance that there could be an early general election. Mrs. May’s wonderful dance sequence prior to her Birmingham conference speech might have diverted attention for a short while but decisions that could impact on the nation…

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Polling boost for beleaguered Theresa as the Tory conference opens in Birmingham

Polling boost for beleaguered Theresa as the Tory conference opens in Birmingham

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Her party retakes the lead with Opinium Opinium fieldwprk Sept 26-29 CON 39+2 LAB 36-3 LD 9= It used to be one of those rock solid polling rules that LAB would always get a boost in its polling position in surveys taken at the end of its September conference and before the Tory one started. After all the media focus has been on the red team and during the week the general perception was that Labour had had a much…

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In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+

In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+

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GE17 LAB polling understatement doesn’t mean that the same will happen next time One of the things that true believer Corbynistas keep telling me on Twitter is that last year’s general election was a turning point in British politics and that the rules have changed. Thus anything that doesn’t fit into this narrative has to be swept away and dismissed. A key point here is current polling both voting intention and leader ratings which don’t support the contention that their…

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