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Category: Polls

Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

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2014 Euros polling – Wikipedia The others overstated UKIP lead by upto 7% With polls coming thick and fast at the moment the one big trend is that YouGov has been showing markedly better numbers for TBP and the LDs than just about all the others. At times like this it is useful to look at the record and what happened last time. The table above shows how well YouGov did in 2014 compared with the other firms and overstated…

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The big post Euro election question is whether the Westminster polls will revert to normal?

The big post Euro election question is whether the Westminster polls will revert to normal?

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New .@YouGov – 17th May sees the CON+LAB aggregate drop below 50% CON 24% =1Lab : 24% -1BRX : 18%=LDem : 18% +2Grn : 6% -1UKIP : 2% =CHUK : 2% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2019 Above is the latest YouGov polling with the most extraordinary Westminster voting figures that I can recall in recent times. For four parties to be within six points of each other is extraordinary and for the CON+LAB aggregate not to exceed…

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The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

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What is very marked is the high level of variation between the firm’s most recent surveys. Change UK are recorded as being in a range of 2-6% The Brexit Party from 26% to 34% LDs from 11% to 19% GRN from 6% to 11% The Tories are in a much narrower range of 10% to 15%. The possibly outlying figures from BMG might be down to the fact that in its poll the Euros voting intention was put first. With…

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Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

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There were a LOT of polls, including my own, that failed to notice. 2/? — Martin Boon (@martinboon) April 26, 2019 How much can we rely on polling for the Euros? The above was the start of a Twitter thread over the weekend from Martin Boon who has been a major figure in he British polling industry for several decades. He was with ICM and is now part of DeltaPoll. His Tweets raised questions on the mechanics of polling which…

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The May 23rd Euro elections – how the pollsters did last time

The May 23rd Euro elections – how the pollsters did last time

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Wikipedia With, unless there’s deal with the EU before then, Euro elections taking place in the UK on May 23rd we are going to get a lot of polling on the elections that few expected to take place. As can be seen in 2074 the Tory share barely varied in the final three weeks while UKIP, then with Nigel Farage, bounced round quite a lot. A few polls had LAB ahead but the majority pointed to a victory for the…

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What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote

What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote

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But was this more down to Dominic Cummings? With Theresa May’s long term prospects in the job not looking very good there’s a lot of focus in the betting markets on who will succeed her as Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Currently the joint favourites are the ex-Mayor and former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson and the current environment secretary, Michael Gove. It is the electoral potency of the latter that this post is about particularly the way he ran Education…

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Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between 4% and 11% in the standard voting intention polls

Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between 4% and 11% in the standard voting intention polls

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Assessing the impact new group after its first month It is now almost a month since Chuka Umunna and others made their much publicised departure from LAB joining the new the Independent Group. The Wikipedia table above shows that’s happened in the standard voting polls since. These are separate from the surveys where there has been a special prompt for the new grouping which has produced some quite dramatic outcomes. In many ways responses have been dependent on the format…

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Ed Miliband’s ‘immorality’ might explain why he lost the 2015 general election and why voters never really took to him

Ed Miliband’s ‘immorality’ might explain why he lost the 2015 general election and why voters never really took to him

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Anthropologists at Oxford University have identified what they believe to be seven universal moral rules. We asked Brits which they thought was the single most important:Help your family – 38%Divide resources fairly – 18%Respect others' property – 16%https://t.co/WoS2oPccRe pic.twitter.com/gwMcQtgh8r — YouGov (@YouGov) March 1, 2019 Being seen as the worst brother since Cain didn’t help Ed Miliband chances of becoming Prime Minister I’m fascinated by this polling by YouGov about the seven universal moral rules as developed by anthropologists from…

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