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Tories drop to record low in today’s YouGov daily poll

Tories drop to record low in today’s YouGov daily poll

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Labour moves to 14% lead Tories drop to a record low of 28%in latest YouGov.CON 28%: LAB 42%: LD 12%: UKIP 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013 YouGov daily poll – April 3rd to April 10th twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013 @bluenose_carl If YouGov was following normal pattern fieldwork would have been from about 5pm on Tuesday to 5pm last night — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013 The last three pollsters to report -Opinium,TNS…

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Labour’s YouGov lead down to 8pc – but it is too early to say that it’s Philpott, welfare, Mrs Thatcher or just normal margin of error

Labour’s YouGov lead down to 8pc – but it is too early to say that it’s Philpott, welfare, Mrs Thatcher or just normal margin of error

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Chart showing trend in YouGov daily poll April 3 – April 9 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2013 Today’s YouGov daily poll has CON 33%: LAB 41%: LD 10%: Ukip 10%. So the numbers are almost back to where they were in the first survey after the Easter break – 33/41/9/10. There’s been a lot going and it’s easy to choose one of several factors and say that is the driver. But it could all just be the…

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If stepping up the rhetoric on welfare was supposed to boost CON poll ratings it has yet to work

If stepping up the rhetoric on welfare was supposed to boost CON poll ratings it has yet to work

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Welfare reform is only important electorally if it impacts on voting behaviour & so far we’ve seen no evidence of that — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2013 Ukip equal highest levels with both YouGov and Opinium New Opinium/Observer online poll without past vote weighting – LAB 38, CON28, UKIP 17, LD 8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2013 Today’s YouGov for Sunday Times.CON 30,LAB 40,LD 11,UKIP 13.So Tories 1% above low point with firm &Ukip =ing high point….

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Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

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Ukip up 5 & the LDs up 4 in tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy. See pie chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013 Ukip’s 14% is the highest ever for a phone survey With the Times deciding to get rid of its monthly Populus poll there are now only regular three telephone surveys each month – ICM for the Guardian, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard and this one – ComRes for the Independent. As can be scene…

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If Scotland rejects independence it will be because Scottish women are not convinced

If Scotland rejects independence it will be because Scottish women are not convinced

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Latest Scottish referendum poll for S Times has huge gender divide. YES 7% ahead with men but 27% behind with women. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2013 The Sept 2014 referendum: The testosterone factor With just 18 months to go before the Scottish referendum there’s a new poll from Panelbase in the Sunday Times. Overall the split is 36% YES to 46^% NO. The balance of those sampled have not made up their minds. The poll used the…

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First post-budget poll sees CON up 2 and Ukip down 2 – but all changes within margin of error

First post-budget poll sees CON up 2 and Ukip down 2 – but all changes within margin of error

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CON up 2, Ukip down 2 in first post-budget daily poll but otherwise very little change. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2013 We’ve just got the first post-budget voting figures from YouGov which are all within the margin of error. Only change on yesterday is CON up 2 with Ukip down 2. If the blue hope was that the budget would be a game-changer there is no sign of it yet. No doubt there’ll be lots of new…

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The biggest challenge for Cameron – winning back CON 2010 voters now saying don’t know

The biggest challenge for Cameron – winning back CON 2010 voters now saying don’t know

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IfCON 2010 voters who are now “don’t know” return then #GE2015 could be lot closer. See pie chart fromICM data. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 Why GE2015 could be closer than it now looks One of the biggest challenges when analysing voting intention polls is the very high level of “will vote – don’t knows” that we see. These totals are generally higher in ICM polls because the form of questioning is much less judgemental than with…

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At last! News of the constituency poll I believe I took part in and which is contributing to the Tory gloom

At last! News of the constituency poll I believe I took part in and which is contributing to the Tory gloom

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CON 1500 majority that’ll go LAB 7000: the private poll that’s adding to the blue panic.m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2013 Was the funder Bedford’s MP, Richard Fuller – majority 1353? Last autumn, for the very first time in my life, I took part in telephone political poll. After having written about polling for years this was a unique experience and I’ve been waiting for the survey I took part in to appear. As I recall the…

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