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Category: Polls

YouGov polling on how Ed Miliband compares to Gordon Brown

YouGov polling on how Ed Miliband compares to Gordon Brown

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New PB thread on Ed vs Gordon pollingwww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2013 There’s some polling by YouGov for The Times (££) which has attracted headlines such as “Voters trust Miliband less than Brown”, but analysing the figures the results aren’t as bad for Ed and Labour as it first appears The Brown figures are from May 2010, shortly after polling day, whilst Ed’s figures have just been carried out. Here are the results More voters thought that…

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Two years before an election, how much of a lead does the Opposition have.

Two years before an election, how much of a lead does the Opposition have.

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The one thing I’ve most read on British politics in recent months, is that Labour should be doing better, What the below graph shows is how much of a lead in voting intentions the opposition has two years before an election with Ipsos-Mori (note the figure for Margaret Thatcher is from March 1977, a little under 26 months before an election) As we can see, generally speaking most oppositions have a lead two years before an election, the exceptions being…

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Polling averages and changes with the Phone Pollsters since January

Polling averages and changes with the Phone Pollsters since January

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Without rehearsing the discussions on PB on why some of us prefer phone pollsters, in recent days, a few posters have asked me to revive the PB polling average. I’ve slightly modified from what happened in the past. What I’ve done is average the monthly phone polls from January this year, month by month, since ending of Populus’ contract with the Times, we only have three regular monthly phone polls, The ICM for The Guardian, Ipsos-Mori’s regular political monitor, and…

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ComRes online Westminster VI poll

ComRes online Westminster VI poll

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Following on from the release of the ComRes’ European Election VI for Open Europe yesterday, today Open Europe have released the Westminster voting intention poll that was carried out at the same time. The changes are from the last ComRes online poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, The Conservatives will be worried that their polling has slipped into the mid 20s, only six points ahead of UKIP, those survation polls with the Conservatives only 2% ahead of…

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Your chance to win the ideal reference book for political anoraks

Your chance to win the ideal reference book for political anoraks

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This will give you hours of psephological fun! Biteback has generously agreed to give copy of the latest volume by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, called “British Electoral Facts 1832-2012” as a PB competition prize. The book is an amazing treasure trove and my copy sits almost permanently on my desk. All you have to do is guess the CON and Ukip shares in the June Guardian ICM poll. The closest forecast will win. As with all PB competitions…

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After last night’s Survation poll with Ukip just 2pc behind the Tories today’s YouGov has the gap at 17pc

After last night’s Survation poll with Ukip just 2pc behind the Tories today’s YouGov has the gap at 17pc

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So why the huge difference? The first YouGov poll to be carried out after the “loongate” story blew up has a dramatically different picture than Survation last night. UKIP remains on the 14% share recorded in the Sunday Times poll while the Tories edge up 2% to 31% with LAB falling back a point. The main differences between Survation and YouGov are that the former takes likelihood to vote into account and prompts for Ukip in its main voting question….

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Four very different pictures from the four overnight online polls for the Sunday papers

Four very different pictures from the four overnight online polls for the Sunday papers

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@msmithsonpb getting some interesting spreads in polling now — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) May 19, 2013 The Tories are seen as being much more divided than LAB 73% tell the latest YouGov survey that the Tories are divided with just 10% saying united. 29% said LAB united to 36% saying divided — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 In the Sunday Telelgraph/ICM Wisdom Index those polled are asked to predict the percentages for the four main parties. Note that…

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The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

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This has be said many times before but it is worth emphasising – how UKIP is most popular amongst the older age groups – the segment of the electorate that is much more likely to vote. The chart, based on this month’s Ipsos-MORI data, shows the proportion saying they are certain to vote in each age segment and the proportion saying they would vote UKIP if there was a general election tomorrow. It has been observed in past elections that…

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