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The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet

The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet

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Only EdM’s personal ratings should give LAB cause for concern It’s parliamentary recess time. The 2012-2013 political season is over only to return in early September and then into the conference season which for whatever reason kicks off a week earlier than usual. The final days have been accopmanied by a concentration of polling on a level that we usually only see at general election time. I’ve updated my current polling chart to feature all of them. The most signifcant…

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Populus responds to some of the points about its new online poll

Populus responds to some of the points about its new online poll

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Does “party ID” weighting understate UKIP? Yesterday I posted a couple of Tweets about the impact on the party ID weighting in the new online Populus poll which has just been launched. Instead of sticking with its traditional past vote weighting approach the firm had adopted party ID weightings based back to what was recorded in British Social Attitudes Survey of 2010, when, of course, UKIP support was much lower than it is today. The effect is quite marked as…

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Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

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After last night’s ICM poll which has UKIP down to 7% with the CON and LAB level-pegging it is inevitable that people will focus on the firm particularly its record with Farage’s party. There’s little doubt at the moment that the main differences between the pollsters is what they are recording for UKIP. If they find Farage’s party getting a high share then the Tories are doing worse. The chart above shows the UKIP shares in the final polls before…

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Sensational ICM poll has the Tories drawing level with LAB

Sensational ICM poll has the Tories drawing level with LAB

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UKIP down 5 to 7% The fall of UKIP in tonight's ICM poll is quite sensational. In May it was 18%, June 12% and in this poll 7% CON the beneficiary — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2013 The ICM poll which has CON & LAB level is the best for the party since just before Osbo's March 2012 budget. Then CON was 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2013 Six polls in just two days

LAB 7 points ahead in new Populus online poll

LAB 7 points ahead in new Populus online poll

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But why oh why no prompts for UKIP? Populus is back doing voting intention surveys which is good news for poll watchers. The firm built up a strong reputation with its series for the Times which was finally dropped by the paper last year. It has done a lot of work for the Conservative party and Michael Ashcroft over the years and, indeed, the former boss, Andrew Cooper, now works at Number 10. Now the firm has gone online and…

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If current polling levels continue then UKIP must be in with a good chance of getting MPs

If current polling levels continue then UKIP must be in with a good chance of getting MPs

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Courtesy of @MSmithsonPB this table from Electoral Calculus shows projections for UKIP seats at different levels pic.twitter.com/H2B22Nl0vY — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 14, 2013 Is it worth a punt? The significant feature of the weekend polling was that three of the 4 firms reporting had such large shares for UKIP – not much down on what we were seeing in the immediate aftermath of the party’s spectacular local elections performance in May ComRes online had them at 18%, Opinium at…

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So that was the Falkirk effect that was

So that was the Falkirk effect that was

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Today’s YouGov is now out and completes the polling picture for the weekend. The shares were CON 30, LAB 41, LD 10, UKIP 13. Labour’s 41% is the highest for eight weeks. This, and the other polls overnight, will be massively disappointing to the Tories who just a few days were feeling that they had turned the corner. They’d also had the EU referendum bill in the Commons. This chart shows all four polls overnight. Mike Smithson For the latest…

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Tonight’s bumper polling night – all the main online firms have surveys for the Sundays

Tonight’s bumper polling night – all the main online firms have surveys for the Sundays

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@MSmithsonPB Typical. You wait for a poll for ages, and then FOUR come along at once.. — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) July 13, 2013 This is how each of the firms had it last time Tonight’s is a very unusual one for polls outside general election campaigns. By my reckoning all the main online firms have a got a survey coming out and we should have at least four polls. As well as the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times…

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