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So far, at least, it is hard to discern a Falkirk or Flowers effect in YouGov’s daily polls

So far, at least, it is hard to discern a Falkirk or Flowers effect in YouGov’s daily polls

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The YouGov/Sunday Times has Con 33% Lab 40% LD9% UKIP 11% So no sign that the Flowers story or Falkirk is impinging on LAB position — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2013 Labour’s share continues to be very stable Generally pollsters ask the voting intention questioning first before moving on to other issues because they don’t want the process of the polling itself to impact on the voting responses. It has been shown that you can influence voting responses if the question is asked…

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LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “Best PM” lead

LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “Best PM” lead

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So it’s back to where we were This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that yesterday’s 4% CON deficit might have been a blip though all changes are within the margin of error. We also have the latest YouGov “Best PM” tracker which sees 34% saying Cameron and 23% saying EdM – both down one point. 95% of CON voters named Dave while 63% of LAB ones named Ed – findings that will continue to give hope to the…

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Whatever the polls are saying the memory of GE1992 will give hope to the Tories right to the end

Whatever the polls are saying the memory of GE1992 will give hope to the Tories right to the end

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Remember the election that was a total disaster for the pollsters It’s being reported that David Cameron is using John Major’s successful and surprise victory at GE1992 as a model for his party in seventeen months time. Whether the planned campaigning “double whammy” type tax shock approach will work we’ll have to wait and see but the result from April 1992 will give the blue team hopes of a majority right until the early hours of May 8th 2015. For…

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Two more polls this morning add to the big picture – Labour’s lead is increasing

Two more polls this morning add to the big picture – Labour’s lead is increasing

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Ipsos-MORI also reports Greens up from 4 to 7 Charts from Ipsos-MORI showing today's poll which has LAB lead of 6% – up from level pegging last month pic.twitter.com/Wk5AflwS5C — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2013 LAB’s position with Populus best since end July Today's online poll from Populus sees LAB lead up Lab 40 (+1) Cons 31 (=) LD 11 (=) UKIP 10 (=) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2013 All the leaders see their Ipsos-MORI ratings fall Table from Ipsos-MORI showing…

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LAB take 8pc lead in the November ICM phone poll for the Guardian

LAB take 8pc lead in the November ICM phone poll for the Guardian

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ICM finds huge gender gap Among men LAB & CON tied on 32% each Amongst women LAB 45% CON 26%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 39% of those who voted LD at GE2010 tell ICM that now they are voting LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 In July the firm had CON & LAB level pegging Good Ed v Dave scores in ICM poll for Guardian just out http://t.co/Ax0GrjDkkn pic.twitter.com/Mo8tVSsS4U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 The…

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For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

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Update: Labour lead at 6 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 5th November – Con 34%, Lab 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%; APP -26 http://t.co/yQ959vX9kf — YouGov (@YouGov) November 6, 2013 The last time that LAB had a run of more than three YouGov daily poll shares in the 40s was back in April before the local elections. So today’s third consecutive poll with the party in the 40s suggests that with this firm at least its position is stable. There…

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3 days before he lost GE2010 voters in the marginals rated Gordon Brown as best person to lead Britain through economic crisis

3 days before he lost GE2010 voters in the marginals rated Gordon Brown as best person to lead Britain through economic crisis

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Leading on the economy isn't everything. See this from final Ipsos-MORI poll of marginals at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/W0n5k6yMyy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 @ScotMac3 The same final Ipsos-MORI GE2010 marginals poll had a 7% LAB>CON swing – enough for a majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 Another contradictory “It’s the Economy” finding? I came across the above from the final Ipsos-MORI marginals poll of the GE2010 campaign while researching the broader question of how such surveys compare…

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CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

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@tobyhelm I make that LAB down 1 on 2 wks ago LAB-1, 37 CON+4, 31 UKIP-1, 16 LD-2, 7 I think a CORRECTION might be needed — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 Labour lead six in op obs poll. Lab down one tories up four. Not lab down four as I said before. Trust @mikesmithson! — Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) November 2, 2013 @OpiniumResearch for Observer found 41% saying BBC biased 27% say it leans to the left 14% say it favours the right. — Mike…

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