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Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

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LAB share down on the month but only by 0.5% Today sees the second of what looks set to be a great resource right through until the general election – the Populus/FT monthly aggregate based on all the firm’s twice-weekly surveys with an overall sample size of more more than 16k. Having a sample on that scale means that the cross-tabs are more meaningful with much smaller margins of errors than we get with individual polls. Thus two key pointers…

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Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

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CON has most positive votes and the fewest tactical ones The chart above is based on the finding new form of questioning which has just been tested by Opinium for its latest Observer poll. After the main voting intention question the firm asked “You said that you would vote [Party] if an election were held tomorrow. Would you say that this is because you’d want to vote for [Party] or because you’d want to vote against someone else?” For those…

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Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding

Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding

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After a whole spate of post-Budget polls showing the LAB share declining and the gap getting close today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times comes as something of a shock. Is it an outlier or are we seeing the Budget effect starting to fade away? That is always hard to say and all we can do is wait to see some more polling. The fieldwork for today’s poll was later than the latest Opinium or Populus polls which both had the…

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Opinium sees Labour’s support fall to lowest level since 2010 election

Opinium sees Labour’s support fall to lowest level since 2010 election

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LAB down to just 33% in tonight's Opinium poll for the Observer – the lowest level since GE2010. CON 1% behind — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2014 Tonight's Opinium poll for the Observer with LAB 1% means that all the firms reporting since the budget have the gap narrowing — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2014 Chart showing Opinium polls since 2010 pic.twitter.com/ywRkMy0YlP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2014   The Observer article can be found here. TSE

How Nigel and Nick squared up against each other in the week’s other YouGov polling

How Nigel and Nick squared up against each other in the week’s other YouGov polling

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Although the fieldwork took place last month this only appeared on YouGov’s website yesterday. NOTE: I’m out this evening and will not be posting tonight surveys until later. As well as YouGov I’m expecting Opinium for the Observer which has some interesting tactical voting questions. The sample was asked if people were voting for a party or against one and, if so, which. Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB

LAB drops 4 in new YouGov Euros poll putting CON to within 4 percent

LAB drops 4 in new YouGov Euros poll putting CON to within 4 percent

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The May 22 Euros are looking like a three horse race Two worrying polls for LAB overnight. The latest YouGov GE 2015 poll has the gap down to 1% once again with LAB at 36% – it’s lowest for a long time. Meanwhile, with less than 8 weeks to go until the May Euros, there’s another blow for LAB. The party is down 4% on two weeks ago while UKIP jump 3 to 26%. This means that three parties are…

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The Maggie Thatcher 1979 experience: Why leader and “best PM” ratings are not necessarily the best guide to how people will vote

The Maggie Thatcher 1979 experience: Why leader and “best PM” ratings are not necessarily the best guide to how people will vote

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CON GE2015 hopes are too reliant on Miliband’s poor ratings The Times is leading on polling about Ed Miliband’s PM ratings which are not good for Labour. There is no doubt that on almost every measure when put up against Cameron he does worse – sometimes by quite a margin. But you have to put these sorts of numbers into context. The PM ratings trend chart above is from the last general election that the Tories were returned to power…

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If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

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How the budget moves fit with the overall trend Quite a few PBers, I know, have been betting on the PaddyPower market on when there will be a crossover in the five times a week YouGov polls for News International. Given what’s happened since the budget then their hopes might be riding high but time is running out. For there to be a CON lead only four more surveys remain. Is that going to happen? Clearly the daily ratings can…

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