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Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

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The closed list PR system has never worked for the red team The Westminster polling above is from May 1999 when Tony Blair’s New Labour was riding high and William Hague’s Tories were struggling to make an impact. At the time those sorts of 20%+ poll leads were common place and, as we all know, two years later New Labour went on to win a second huge landslide victory only a few seats down on 1997. Yet success in the…

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Welcome back Marf and the second 35% share for LAB from YouGov this week

Welcome back Marf and the second 35% share for LAB from YouGov this week

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@YouGov Two 35% LAB shares & a 37% this week – the worst period for LAB since Jul 2010. pic.twitter.com/qnEiLypmSF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2014 Looking back over the past decade there’s little doubt that Westminster voting intentions can be all over the place in the closing phase of the Euro elections campaign. It happened in 2004 and 2009 so maybe there’s a case for saying that we oughtn’t to read too much into the current comparatively poor…

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The Populus monthly aggregates show LAB losing a seventh of its 2010 LD switchers over the past quarter

The Populus monthly aggregates show LAB losing a seventh of its 2010 LD switchers over the past quarter

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The red team’s electoral crutch is getting shorter One of the best polling innovations this year has been the Populus monthly aggregates for the FT based on its twice weekly online polls. Whilst there can be greater variation in individual polls the aggregate helps us see the bigger picture and here, as the chart shows, the LAB shares have been edging downwards. Digging into the poll detail one of the reasons might be a lessening of the level of 2010…

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Lord Ashcroft teases us about his latest poll of the marginals. Can anyone decipher this?

Lord Ashcroft teases us about his latest poll of the marginals. Can anyone decipher this?

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What a tease @LordAshcrof is. His exchange with @DPJHodges Does this mean new marginals poll is good or bad for EdM? pic.twitter.com/I7S8dtP3Z9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2014 Just to note that Telegraph blogger, Dan Hodges, is an ex-LAB staffer who has never knowingly written anything that is positive about the younger Miliband. My reading of the exchange is that there’s been little movement in the marginals – but maybe I’m wrong. We’ll know two weeks on Saturday. Mike…

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UKIP Euro voters are more than twice as likely to say they’ll support party in general election compared with five years ago

UKIP Euro voters are more than twice as likely to say they’ll support party in general election compared with five years ago

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The first data from the 20,000 sample British Election Study Exactly a year to go and this morning I’m off to London for the launch of the British Election Study – a huge academic exercise involving Manchester/Oxford/Nottingham universities which is monitoring and will produce regular reports on the coming general election. The chart above is from findings that have been released overnight as a sort of taster. They seek to answer the big unknown – the extent that UKIP support…

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The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

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An update on how the blue-red battle is doing where it matters, the marginals The big polling event of May 2014, exactly a year before general election, will be the publication by Lord Ashcroft of his latest mega sample polling of the marginals. This is due to be made available during the weekend immediately after the May 22nd local elections and immediately before the results of the Euro elections are announced. The former usually come on the Friday while with…

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The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

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The Purples look to be timing their peak right again With only a few weeks to go to the last big set of elections before the 2015 general election, April’s PB polling average shows the extent to which UKIP is once again timing a polling surge.  The figures are with changes on March LAB 36.4 (-0.1), CON 31.3 (-1.3), Ukip 14.6 (+2.7), LD 9.1 (-1.6) So after last month’s Budget bounce, the overall Lab-Con lead is back around the 5%,…

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Today’s new Euro polls: Survation for London and YouGov for GB

Today’s new Euro polls: Survation for London and YouGov for GB

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The LDs seem to be holding up well in London It is widely known that London tends to have a different view of the world than the rest of GB and so it appears to be with this month’s Euro elections. Although up on 2009 Ukip have not made the breakthroughs on the same scale in the capital as elsewhere. Conversely the LDs who have taken one pummelling pummelling after another are finding that their London vote in the Euros…

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