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In recent days and especially today, it feels like a General Election campaign with a phalanx of polls, and it is hard to work out what the polls mean with polls with markedly different results. First Up, we have the ComRes phone poll for the Independent. ComRes/Independent Westminster (phone) poll Lab 35% (-1) Con 30% (-) UKIP 14% (+2) LD 8% (-1) Others 13% (-) http://t.co/LY90t5vkJt — Andrew Hawkins (@Andrew_ComRes) May 19, 2014   Well also have a ComRes online…

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Labour takes a 6 point lead with Lord Ashcroft’s polling.   Lord Ashcroft poll has published his second weekly phone poll on Westminster VI and it great news for the Red team As the good Lord himself says wisely This looks like quite a reversal in the week since the inaugural Ashcroft National Poll found the first Tory lead since 2012. What is going on? Ten general election voting intention surveys have been published between last Monday’s poll and today’s. Of those…

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This morning’s Populus online poll became the third pollster in a week to show The Conservatives ahead, it is also the first online pollster to show the Blues ahead since March 2012. The two most interesting phenomenon of this period of Conservatives ahead in the polling is i) That is happening in the run-up to the last set of elections before next year’s General Election.  ii) The Conservatives are only 1 to 3 % down on their General election score,…

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I’m looking forward to the post election polling inquest I cannot recall a previous election where there was such a division between the pollsters. Some of them are not getting this right but which ones? In the past week all three of the top parties have had a lead – the biggest being the massive 11% UKIP recorded by ComRes online which totally limits its published numbers to those 100% certain to vote. Given measuring turnout is so important I’m…

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ComRes online EP2014 poll has Ukip 11% ahead UKIP 35%+1 LAB 24%= CON 20% -2 GRN 7% +2 LD 6% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014 ICM online for S Telegraph has Ukip in 3rd place CON 26%+4 LAB 29%-1 LD 8%= UKIP 25%-2 Changes on last ICM online Euros poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014 The differences between the two polls are massive and it is not easy finding an obvious explanation. A lot of this comes down to how the two firms…

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Could this be inflating their purple shares? There’s a new ComRes online Euros poll out this morning. The figures show Ukip in its best position of any of the firms that have reported this week with a big margin over place LAB. But there’s a big difference between ComRes 10/10 certain to vote figures and those where its normal turnout weightings are applied. So of five firms to have reported this week three have Ukip in the lead, one has…

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