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Category: Polls

Why Starmer is not going to let go of the issue of Johnson not acting quickly enough on COVID19

Why Starmer is not going to let go of the issue of Johnson not acting quickly enough on COVID19

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One of the great sources of analysis during the pandemic has been on Radio 4’s “More of Less” programme which each week subjects big issues in the news to statistical analysis. It has just finished its current series and its last programme was basically a summation of how the pandemic evolved. It is well worth listening to here . Inevitably the issue of timing of the government’s decision in March is subject to scrutiny and a clear view is developing…

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The end of the honeymoon

The end of the honeymoon

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At some point LAB will take the lead Labour has not led in any GB poll since 28 July 2019, four days after Boris Johnson succeeded Theresa May as Prime Minister. They did so with a share of just 30%: one more than the Tories and one less than the combined Lib Dem and Brexit Party shares. It seems a lot more than eleven months ago. Clearly, a huge amount has changed since then but the Tory position at the…

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Perhaps pollsters should start weighting for those who have had Covid-19 or know someone who has had from Covid-19

Perhaps pollsters should start weighting for those who have had Covid-19 or know someone who has had from Covid-19

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This morning The Sunday Times have done some excellent analysis based on figures from the gold standard Office of National Statistics that shows While the virus threat is receding in London and other urban centres, our research shows many of the 44 parliamentary seats in the north and the Midlands that switched from Labour to Conservative last year are suffering an above-average mortality rate. The red wall has become a blue dilemma for a prime minister determined to make last year’s…

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The first phone poll since March has CON 5% ahead but Starmer with a net 32% lead on leader satisfaction

The first phone poll since March has CON 5% ahead but Starmer with a net 32% lead on leader satisfaction

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Starmer’s numbers are the best for an opposition leader since Blair Today we heard something of a pulling rarity – a phone survey from Ipsos Mori – the first since March well before starmer became Labour leader. The firm is the only one still doing national phone political surveys which cost a huge amount more than online polling. One of the things I love about them is that it has been going for so long and maintains records going back…

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A new way of showing how LAB and CON are viewed

A new way of showing how LAB and CON are viewed

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This looks quite interesting – trying to assess how the main two parties are viewed by looking at responses to the same series of YouGov questions over a period of time. This has been all dressed up and called the Valence Index. No doubt we’ll see more of this in the coming months but it will be a long time before we can test this in a real election. One thing that strikes me is that there are more don’t…

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Why Johnson can take little comfort from the Tory voting intention poll leads

Why Johnson can take little comfort from the Tory voting intention poll leads

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He’s being smashed by Starmer in the leader ratings The latest weekly poll from Opinium the the Observer had the Conservatives with a 4% lead while at the same time the same poll gave Starmer net 30% lead over Johnson in its approval question. On the face of it these two statements about this poll simply don’t make sense. The head of a party in the lead on voting would not, surely, have approval numbers that were so far off….

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