The 16% Tory lead poll – the detail Reproduced above is an extract from the detailed data from today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showing the Tories with their best figures for a quarter of a century. The paper is leading on the survey this morning. By any account the figures are sensational and, if repeated at a general election, would see David Cameron returned with a three figure majority. But that could be more than two years away…
Is the Jasper resignation the beginning or the end? Anybody betting on the London Mayoral election should check out this interview with the Evening Standard’s Andrew Gilligan which appeared in the Independent a couple of days ago. What I found striking from the piece was his step by step approach of never revealing all at one go. The Jasper revelations and resignation won’t be the last, story that he’ll try to do on Ken’s custodianship of the Mayoralty between now…
Mayoral betting is here
Were the results of a secret poll behind the Boris betting rush? Yesterday afternoon, while Labour was gathered in Birmingham for its spring conference, there was a big switch-over on the mayoral betting markets that now make Boris the odds-on favourite. For the talk at the conference was of Ken facing a major challenge suggesting to me that there might be another secret poll which they are keeping very quiet about. Tessa Jowell’s assertion that the “race this time is…
As the chart, reflecting betting prices as implied probabilities, shows there has been an easing of Ken’s Mayoral election price and a tightening of Boris’s and most of this has happened in the past 36 hours. I don’t know what’s driving it. The last major news items were the opinion polls on Tuesday. On the Sporting Index spread market Boris has this morning been priced as the clear favourite. My only explanation is that Labour is holding its Spring Conference…
The secret survey that shows Ken could be in trouble When on Tuesday Ken sought to counter the latest YouGov mayoral figures by revealing party private polling data he set off a disclosure process that has, for the first time I believe, allowed us to look at the full numbers from a Labour survey that was supposed to be secret. And with this election looking very tight a key factor will be how the second preferences split – will they…
The MORI poll he reported is nearly three weeks old I have now got the fieldwork dates and some other details from the private MORI poll for Labour that Ken “pulled out of the hat” as news of the 5% deficit in the YouGov survey came out. The MORI fieldwork started getting on for three weeks ago, on February 8th and went on until the 12th. A sample of 808 Londoners was interviewed by telephone. The survey found on that…
Is the Mayor being hit by all bad publicity? A new YouGov poll for London ITV News has Ken fallen 5% behind Boris in the race for the London Mayoralty. These ae the shares compared with the last proper survey from the firm in December – JOHNSON 44%(nc): LIVINGSTONE 39%(-5): PADDICK 12%(+5) The YouGov boss, Peter Kellner has confirmed to me that the survey took place from Tuesday to Thursday of last week and involved a sample of 1,003. In…