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Category: London and local elections

Are Labour’s YouGov smears affecting the betting?

Are Labour’s YouGov smears affecting the betting?

Should you be capitalising on the lies about the 2004 polls? The Labour spin machine has gone into overdrive today to try to discredit the latest YouGov poll that shows Ken Livingstone again facing a double digit polling deficit in his battle with Boris Johnson. A statement by the party said: “…YouGov has a record of significantly underestimating Ken Livingstone’s vote in London. On the day before the last Mayoral election YouGov put put Ken Livingstone just two per cent…

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Will May 1st resolve whether Toffs are electable?

Will May 1st resolve whether Toffs are electable?

Could the City Hall outcome be a marker for Downing Street? If London ITV is following its normal pattern then either today or tomorrow we should see a new opinion poll of voters in the capital on the London mayoralty. The organisation commissioned a YouGov survey at the end of every month since December and let us hope that it is following the normal pattern. I took last week’s news, which wasn’t as far as I know denied, that Downing…

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Introducing the man Gord expects to be Mayor

Introducing the man Gord expects to be Mayor

Should your betting be following the Prime Minister? With just five weeks to go before five million Londoners vote on their Mayor there’s a report in the Times this morning that is hardly going to improve relations between the government and City Hall. Under the heading “Gordon Brown deserts Ken Livingstone..” the paper reports that the PM has “… all but written off Ken Livingstone’s chances of winning the London mayoral election, according to close allies.” Brown, it is noted…

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Will Labour rue the day it brought Ken back in?

Will Labour rue the day it brought Ken back in?

Would an independent loss to the Tories be a lot less damaging? Four and a half years ago Tony Blair went to extraordinary lengths to ensure that Labour would have a big result to shout about in what were to be the final national elections before the 2005 general election. He desperately wanted a victory for his party and the London Mayoral winner of four years earlier, Ken Livingstone, was brought back into the fold. In 2000, of course, he…

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The week that punters turned to Boris

The week that punters turned to Boris

But should you be making a 75/1 insurance bet on Paddick? The chart, using betting prices expressed as implied probabilities, shows the dramatic changes there have been in the London Mayoral race betting over the past week. Last Saturday the Labour incumbent, Ken Livingstone, was the marginal odds-on favourite with his Tory challenger, Boris Johnson, not far behind. Then the came the national general election polls showing a huge move to the Tories in the aftermath of the budget. This…

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Who’s the best bet: Boris or Obama?

Who’s the best bet: Boris or Obama?

The current odds-in favourites in the two most active betting markets are Obama for the Democratic nomination and Boris for the London mayoralty. The former is at 0.4/1 and the latter at 0.68/1. I think that the prices are the wrong way round and that Boris has a substantially better chance of making it than Obama does. Of course with Boris everything depends on how Londoners vote on May 1st while with Obama the majority of state battles have taken…

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Poll: Paddick supporters prefer Boris to Ken

Poll: Paddick supporters prefer Boris to Ken

Why’s Boris winning the battle for LD second preferences? The above extract is from the detailed data on the YouGov website of this week’s London Mayoral poll showing Boris 12% ahead. What could be even more significant is the way the Brian Paddick second preferences are splitting:- Boris is winning 41% of them to Ken’s 34%. This is very much at odds with the way many on PBC have been seeing it and the assumption has been that Ken would…

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Boris takes a 12% lead with YouGov (updated)

Boris takes a 12% lead with YouGov (updated)

Do the findings mean that it’s now curtains for Ken? The odds on Boris Johnson becoming the next Mayor of London have tightened sharply following the publication of a new YouGov putting the Henley MP 12% ahead. The shares are with changes on the last survey a month ago JOHNSON 49% (+5): LIVINGSTONE 37% (-2) : PADDICK 12% (nc). On second preferences YouGov has picked up the same trend that MORI found last month with Boris getting 20% of them…

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