Picture: a Jeremy Vine stunt from the BBC’s so-called coverage The story is illustrated with one of the stupid gimmicks that the BBC used overnight to masquerade the fact that their election coverage has been abysmal. What we saw was Jeremy Vine going into a bar in the Wild West and “shooting” at cans which then produced number showings how the Lib Dem did at previous elections. Eh? How the BBC must despise us by substituting this for a proper…
The Irish bookie has already started paying out – even though it’s won’t be until this evening that we get the actual result. Looking at the bet date and time it was placed just after Monday’s YouGov poll became public. As soon as the poll news came out I went to every bookie I could to bet before prices were adjusted. The odd stake amount was the most they would let me put on. Nice to see the return come…
Is this bad news for Ken? After reading Stehert’s comment on the previous thread I’ve just watched the GMTV morning news when it looked as though the Labour Deputy Leader, Harriet Harman, was conceding defeat in London. When pressed on the Mayoral race she said that she “did not expect the London result to be any different to the rest of the country.” Certainly there’s been a lot of Tory celebrations and I was amazed that ConservativeHome was ready to…
The ramper/impersonator exposes a vulnerability Those who were on the site at about 6.30pm last night would have followed the attempt of a ramper to influence the Ken and Boris betting prices by creating exchanges as though they were by regular posters here. The “dialogue” started with him creating what purported to be a comment by me saying I had information about an exit poll saying things could be quite close. It then went to cover quite a few regular…
The Dunfermline by election: final price Labour 0.2/1 favourite It’s very easy, especially on election days, to believe that there is some mystical quality about betting prices. If changes are taking place you assume someone knows something and that you should be following yourself. Quite often price changes are based on very little and in the absence of a real reason for a move it’s usually wise to hold your nerve. There was no better example of the markets being…
Mike Smithson
But has YouGov got this one right? The former political journalist and one of the founders of YouGov, Peter Kellner, was reported to be quipping to colleagues yesterday: “One thing is certain: by Friday night – either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”. For of the four firms that have surveyed Londoners only his firm, the controversial online pollster YouGov, has consistently reported significant margins for the Tory contender. The other firms – ICM, MRUK and…
The 11/8 on more than 43% seems like value bet As can probably be gathered from the content of recent posts I am quite long on Boris. My reading of the polls it that he stands a very good chance of winning on Friday and I’ve been betting accordingly. The only circumstance I can foresee of him not making it is if there is a very high turnout. One senior Labour spinner told me yesterday that he thought Ken would…