What would happen to the “certain” bet with this scenario? With the Tories moving even further down in the spread markets Jon’s plan, for a “sure thing” General Election betting strategy could look even more promising. His plan is to combine a Tory buy spread contract at the depressed prices with a Labour winning most seats win punt on Betfair where the odds are now 1.17. The effect of the combination is that you are protected against a loss even…
What if the Lib Dems gain 5% during the campaign? The big question for all those trying to forecast the 2005 General Election is will there be the traditional Lib Dem bounce? For at every General Election since 1987 the Lib Dems have enjoyed spectacular increases of support during the formal campaign – in each case taking votes from Labour. In 1992, 1997 and 2001 the party was starting from a poll position in the low and mid-teens. This time…
In his attempt to pull off an unprecedented and spectacular third General Election victory Tony Blair is making crime/law & order/ and immigration the centre pieces of Labour’s policy portfolio. These were the main items in the Queen’s Speech last month and they are the centre part of his New Year’s message, just published. Before the 1997 Election Blair had the brilliant “Tough on Crime – Tough on the Causes of Crime” rhetoric to underpin his appeal to both the…
Charles Kennedy’s Catch-22 At their conference in Bournemouth in September the Lib Dems made great play of the fact that their goal was to replace the Tories as the party of opposition and they are still repeating the line, even today, which looks set to become a big plank of their General Election campaign. Given the current dynamic of the Tories remaining static and the big switch being between Labour and the LDs then the party is likely to end…
How will the party machines deal with the mid-campaign baby? We wonder whether Tony Blair is working into his election date decision the fact that a 05/05/05 poll would mean that Charles and Sarah Kennedy’s first child would be born right in the middle of the campaign. And with the Tories relatively static at their 2001 vote levels anything that is good for the Lib Dems is likely to be bad for Labour. The big dynamic at the coming election…
Don’t be carried away by the conference euphoria In an attempt to cash in on the euphoria of the Lib Dems Bournemouth conference William Hill today launched two new General election markets for the party netiher of which is online yet. They are quoting them at odds of 7/1 to record a higher percentage of votes polled than the Conservatives and at 10/1 to get more seats than the Tories. These prices are NOT GOOD VALUE even though we’ve been…
Labour down 7% over the past year Today’s Populus Poll in the Times makes good reading for Simon Hughes (above) who was elected as President of the Liberal Democrats last week. The details are:- CON 30% (-2), LAB 32% (No change), LD 26%(+2), OTH 12% An indication of the challenge facing Labour is that its share is down 7% on a year ago which in itself was affected by the suicide a few weeks earlier of the scientist David Kelly….
Newcastle LibDem leaflet Does retaining the university seats hold the key to Tony Blair’s premiership? Applying the Martin Baxter caculator to the latest poll figures gives Labour 346 seats – 22 more than is required for a majority and the bottom of the current spread markets on the party. But how safe are the 22? Could disproportionate swings or highly focused targeting take away this number or even more seats leaving Tony Blair without a majority. Could those targets include…