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Category: Lib Dems

Will we have three new faces next time?

Will we have three new faces next time?

It could be all change at the next election The focus of British political gamblers over the months since the General Election has been on the next Conservative leader. There is a market on the next Labour leader (and the deputy too), along with betting on when Tony Blair will resign as Prime Minister and Labour leader. There is no market as yet on the Liberal Democrat leadership, where there are two interesting questions: when will Charles Kennedy go, and…

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Has being leader made Charles happy?

Has being leader made Charles happy?

1999 2005 Could Blackpool be a turning point? Before the Betfair betting exchange felt it had had to get respectable it ran lively markets on whether politicians and others apparently in trouble would hold onto their jobs. The whole David Kelly affair and the Hutton inquiry had very lively betting and Charles Kennedy’s failure to make his party’s response after the 2004 budget statement saw the money piling on both for and against the Lib Dem leader. Sadly we cannot…

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Could Labour’s lost deposit be good news for Tony Blair?

Could Labour’s lost deposit be good news for Tony Blair?

Tory share rises but the Lib Dem margin gets bigger As we said the Cheadle by-election was always going be determined by what would happen to the Labour vote and the big squeeze yesterday that saw that drop by almost half on May 5th meant that the Lib Dems held it with ease. The skill of the Lib Dem campaign supremo, Chris Rennard, in demonising the Tories encouraged more tactical voting and meant that although the Tories advanced they are…

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Will Rennard’s indignation strategy save Cheadle?

Will Rennard’s indignation strategy save Cheadle?

Can the Lib Dems make the leaflet “rapist” claim backfire? In the closing phase of election campaigns parties often implement strategies designed solely to get their activists motivated and their supporters out to vote. At the General Election Tony Blair created the “if one in 10 Labour supporters switches or stays at home then Michael Howard becomes PM” line to put fire into his troops and to scare wavering voters into going to the polls. The fact that the statement…

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How dangerous is Cheadle for Charlie?

How dangerous is Cheadle for Charlie?

Could the by-election determine his future? With the build-up to the Olympic decision and the London bombs we’ve not really looked at the position of Charles Kennedy who only last week had to warn his fellow MPs about the whispering campaign against him. This was followed by last weekend’s Mail on Sunday investigation about the alleged “upgrades” he got on his honeymoon – though the very idea behind the story that somebody should think that the leader of the Liberal…

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Could Cheadle give Charles Kennedy a headache?

Could Cheadle give Charles Kennedy a headache?

Do the Tories stand any chance of wininng? The mood amongst Liberal Democrats at the PB.C party at the weekend was that defending the Cheadle by-election a fortnight today might be a tougher challenge than the current Betfair price might suggest. There are a number of issues:- Will Labour supporters switch? With a Lib Dem majority in 2001 of just 33 votes Cheadle was right at the top of the Tory hit list and this put the squeeze on Labour…

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Could Kennedy be drowned out by Blair and Howard?

Could Kennedy be drowned out by Blair and Howard?

But the punters are sticking with the Lib Dems Based on recent media coverage you would be forgiven for thinking that Britiain had returned to two-party politics. For with political noise levels rising to almost deafening proportions the Lib Dems are finding it hard getting themselves noticed as Labour and the Tories slog it out in an increasingly bitter fight. With their opinion roll ratings down sharply and their leader being criticised for missing a key vote on the anti-terror…

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Polls show Lib Dems are less likely to support Labour

Polls show Lib Dems are less likely to support Labour

Who’ll win the battle for the Lab-Lib Dem Waverers? Detailed data from two recent polls has provided more information about the segment of the electorate who will shape Tony Blair’s future CV – those who are wavering between his party and the Lib Dems. These are divided into two distinct groups:- Labour supporters who are considering switching to Charles Kennedy’s party because of the war, tuition fees or a host of other possible issues. They represent about 10% of all…

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