As a matter of record here is the final betting chart on the 2006 Lib Dem leadership race. This is based on the implied probability of victory based on the best betting prices. I like them because they do graphically illustrate changing perceptions over time. For all but four and a half weeks since the polls closed on May 5th 2005 we have had a leadership race taking place and our traffic has increased so that on most weekdays more…
Were respondees conditioned to put Ming number one? With, thankfully, just a few hours to go before the Lib Dem ballot closes the acting leader, Ming Campbell, is now now firmly back in the favourite slot. All the sentiment today has been in his favour and against Chris Huhne who has been odds-on since the only public YouGov members’ poll three weeks ago put him 4% ahead. Part of the weakening of the Huhne position has been based on the…
Why I’m sticking with YouGov? With a sharp move back to Ming Campbell on the Lib Dem betting markets there’s a lot of focus on the one members’ poll that has been published during the campaign – the survey by YouGov commissioned by a rich Huhne supporter. This showed on first preferences Huhne: 38%: Campbell 34%: Hughes 27%. The run-off figures based on second preferences, eliminating Hughes were Huhne 52%: Campbell 48%. Much has been made of the fact that…
Why did Ming’s lead on Hughes 2nd preferences drop 19% in three days? At this stage in the Tory leadership contest there’d been seven Tory member polls and the only outstanding issue was whether or not the 39 year-old’s share would top the 66% mark. Contrast that with the Lib Dem race where the only members’ poll in a newspaper was on January 7th – a few hours before Charles Kennedy’s announcement. This showed that Hughes was being beaten by…
Is Ming Campbell at 6/4 the value bet? The seemingly never-ending saga that is the Lib Dem leadership contest takes on another bizarre twist this morning with both the Guardian and Independent reporting on separate surveys of attendees at Thursday’s London hustings meeting. The challenge for anybody trying to predict the outcome is that the two ex-broadsheet papers come out with completely different findings. The Guardian spoke to 422 people who were there and found Huhne had 152 first preferences…
Time to back Ming at 2/1 What is happening on the Lib Dem leadership betting markets? After a week when the prices on Chris Huhne and Ming Campbell hardly moved – which itself seemed odd – we’ve seen a huge swing to Huhne during the past 36 hours as the chart above shows. This graph traces the best betting price shown as implied probability every six hours for the past three days and the move today has been extraordinary. A…
Are £1,000s being spent keeping Huhne up and Ming down? For the second time in eight days there’s been unusual activity on the Lib Dem markets in the immediate aftermath of a TV programme that might have affected punters’ views of the chances of Chris Huhne and Ming Campbell. It happened, as the chart above on the Ming Campbell prices illustrates, in the minutes after last night’s Newsnight programme featuring the critical report on Chris Huhne by investigative journalist, Michael…
What’s he got to report about the Lib Dem favourite? A story running on Guido’s blog suggests that there is a less than flattering report about Chris Huhne on Newsnight on BBC2 this evening. It is said to be by Michael Crick who has built up a reputation for digging up things from the past of politicians. Indeed one of the great jokes is “Q. What are the five most terrifying words in the English language. A. Michael Crick is…