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Category: Lib Dems

What’s a good outcome for the Lib Dems on Thursday?

What’s a good outcome for the Lib Dems on Thursday?

Will Ming’s party consolidate its second place position? With the big battle going on in Scotland and the attention on the Labour leadership the Lib Dems have been struggling, even more than usual, to get the attention of the media in the run-up to Thursday. That’s nothing new and is not necessarily a problem because local elections, where you can put a huge amount of resource in to key ward contests, suit their style of campaigning. Unlike Labour, which is…

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How much will the Harrogate fiasco cost the Lib Dems?

How much will the Harrogate fiasco cost the Lib Dems?

Why equidistance between the main parties should be Ming’s only policy Recriminations are continuing within the Lib Dems over the cock-up in Harrogate at the weekend that caused almost all of the media to report that Ming would do a deal with Gord but not Dave. Whether or not the leader was saying he favoured Labour really does not matter. What is key is how it was reported and the ammunition it will provide for both the Tories and Labour…

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Will I win my Ming Campbell bet?

Will I win my Ming Campbell bet?

How long can the Lib Dem leader withstand the media pressure? It’s perhaps an example of the Lib Dem version of “sod’s law” that just as they gather for their spring conference in Harrogate hoping for a publicity boost that we have the latest developments in the cash for honours case and the gagging order that has been taken out against the BBC. For it’s hard enough grabbing media attention as the third party and then they get shoved down…

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Will holding Sedgefield be Gordon’s first test?

Will holding Sedgefield be Gordon’s first test?

Blair planning to quit as an MP as soon as he steps down – report According to what is billed as an “exclusive” by the News of the World this morning Tony Blair is planning to step down as MP immediately after leaving Downing Street this summer. The paper says “He has told members of his local Labour Party in the north-east he does not want to “get in the way on the back benches..He had privately agreed to stay…

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What would the Lib Dems do in a hung parliament?

What would the Lib Dems do in a hung parliament?

Would Ming’s party be better off rejecting both suitors? (This is part of an article I wrote for CONtinuityIDS this morning about a hung parliament and what I think might happen if Labour just squeeze ahead on seats even though they are far behind on votes. My starting point was the CON 39%: LAB 33%: LD 22%: OTH 6% in the previous thread producing this Commons outcome – LAB 284: CON 283: LD 54: OTH 29.) My reading of Brown…

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Will the 2006 betting sensation stop Nick Clegg?

Will the 2006 betting sensation stop Nick Clegg?

Is he campaigning to join the fight after Ming goes? Tonight the “Chris Huhne for Next Lib Dem Leader” show comes to Bedford where I live. It’s not actually billed as that but that is what it is. For he’s the main guest at the local party’s annual dinner – one of dozens of invitations he is attending at the moment part, apparently, of a strategy to get himself better known amongst the membership for when the party votes on…

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Could the Lib Dems really be reduced to six seats?

Could the Lib Dems really be reduced to six seats?

Putting today’s Communicate Research figures into the Baxter calculator The above is from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus site and shows what happens if you put the party shares from this morning’s Communicate Research poll for the Independent into his Commons seat predictor. For the numbers the pollster reports are, compared with last month’s figures CON 36 (+2): LAB 37 (+1): LD 14 (-3). The fieldwork for the survey took place in the week before Christmas and ended two days before…

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YouGov puts the Lib Dems down at just 15%

YouGov puts the Lib Dems down at just 15%

Ming’s party at lowest point since the Mark Oaten revelations A new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times this morning has the Lib Dems down at their lowest point with the internet pollster since the Mark Oaten crisis during the leadership contest earlier in the year. The shares are compared with the Telegraph YouGov poll reported on Friday are – CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (-1): LD 15% (-2). This decline is in line with the trend from other polls….

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