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Category: Lib Dems

Baxter puts the Lib Dems on zero seats

Baxter puts the Lib Dems on zero seats

The spread betting markets are unmoved For what must almost certainly be the first time ever Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is putting the Lib Dems on zero seats for the next general election. This is based on feeding his weighted average of recent polls into his commons seat calculator. The result appears above. So if you believe it there’s a fortune to be made on the spread betting markets. The latest Lib Dem Spreadfair prices are SELL 46.5 seats and…

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Has Ming answered his critics?

Has Ming answered his critics?

Is the party now back with a policy of equidistance? The Lib Dems who’ve been returning home this evening after their Brighton conference should have been absolutely delighted with the closing speech by Ming Campbell. After days of being questioned about his age and his fitness to lead his performance, judging from the playbacks on the computer, appeared excellent and, more significantly, undid much of the damage from his last major speech to the party at the Harrogate conference in…

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Will no 2007 general election be Ming’s resignation “peg”?

Will no 2007 general election be Ming’s resignation “peg”?

How does he go with dignity and consistency? The main interest in Ming’s closing speech to the Lib Dem conference in Brighton today will be whether it sounds like a valedictory. Certainly from the briefings that have come out it is starting to look that way. Ming’s problem is how he gets round his previous statements that he would lead the party into the next general elections. If he goes early it would looks as though he had been forced…

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Is it worth betting on Ming to survive?

Is it worth betting on Ming to survive?

Have Hill’s got this one priced right? Bookmakers William Hill have opened a market on whether or not Ming will be leading his party at the general election. The opening prices in the market are: Sir Ming to lead Lib Dems into next General Election – 8/11 NO; Evens YES. I think that Hills have got this wrong. Unless Ming decides voluntarily to step down or he has health problems then I do not think the party has the stomach…

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My plan for Dave: Give Lib Dem incumbents a free ride

My plan for Dave: Give Lib Dem incumbents a free ride

Why fight hard where it won’t affect the overall outcome? Just imagine what the impact on the next general election would be if David Cameron said something like this in his leader’s speech at the Tory conference. “As we all know about 25 of our leading target seats are held by the Liberal Democrats and in the normal course of events they would be given special treatment in the run-up and during the campaign itself. Extra resource would go in…

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Could Ming cope with being managed by a PR chief?

Could Ming cope with being managed by a PR chief?

Do the events of last March show the scale of the challenge? The BBC story above is NOT from the current Lib Dem conference but from last March when coverage of Ming’s big speech went badly out of control. It wasn’t what was said that sparked it off but the way journalists had been briefed by a top party PR man. The suggestion that the Lib Dems would do a deal with Labour but not the Tories if it controlled…

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Which leaders came out of yesterday best?

Which leaders came out of yesterday best?

Has Cameron got the most problems this morning? Judged by the standards of normal mid-term by elections the reduced Labour majorities in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield were sensational victories for Labour. To have kept its average vote share loss in both seats down to 10.7% was something that the party can take real comfort from. But these are not normal times and these cannot be judged as normal mid-term by elections. We have what’s being presented as a change of…

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Betfair opens by election and leader exit markets

Betfair opens by election and leader exit markets

Could the issues all link together over Ming Campbell’s future? The Betfair betting exchange has opened five new political markets as part of its desire to increase the range of options available to punters. That there should be betting on the two by elections is no surprise but it’s good that the firm has wasted little time in setting them up. Even though Labour starts from extraordinarily strong positions in both seats, as the general election figures show, by elections…

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