She takes over with the party on the up It has just been announced that 39 year old Jo Swinson has won the Lib Dem leadership race with 62% of the vote against her former ministerial colleague in the coalition, Ed Davey. She’s the first woman to lead the party and was first elected as an MP at GE2005. She lost her seat, East Dunbartonshire, at GE2015 only to win it back two years later. Her leadership starts at a…
Who knows – the party could be choosing a future PM? So far the LD leadership contest has attracted little media coverage but is it just about feasible to contemplate that in the current political environment the next leader of the the strongly pro-EU LDs could be a future PM. James Kirkup sets out an interesting scenario on the Unherd political site. Meanwhile there’s what’s described as an “informal survey” of LD members that got the last contested election in…
Ed Davey has a better than a 17% chance If you want to base a predictions on the Betfair market then Jo Swinson, the 39 year old ex Lib Dem minister in the Coalition, is heading for a clear victory in the Lib Dem leadership contest. Her opponent, former cabinet minister Ed Davey, is currently at just a 17% chance on the betting exchange with Swinson on an 83% one. As might be expected I know a lot of Lib…
I am afraid that I have to disagree with David Herdson on his latest Saturday thread about YouGov understating Labour. Firstly you cannot judge pollsters’ based on their current surveys when less than 5 weeks ago they were tested against a real election involving real voters. In the two charts above I compare LAB and LD vote shares for the May Euros in their final published polls. Just two of them can claim to have come out of the election…
Inevitably the Tory leadership contest is totally dwarfing coverage of other political developments including the battle for the leadership of the party that totally out-performed the Tories in last month’s Euro elections. Yet given the parliamentary situation the outcome of this postal members’ ballot could be crucial. Last night I attended a hustings in London, sponsored by the New Statesman and hosted by its political editor, Stephen Bush. There are two candidates both of whom were ministers during the coalition…
Dr Foxy on how the Swinson Davey battle is shaping up Understandably the focus of political interest and betting is on the contest to succeed Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party, and most likely Prime Minister. This does rather overshadow the ongoing contest for the leadership of the Liberal Democrat Party, which finds itself in the rather unfamiliar position of rude health. Having had some excellent results in both Local Elections and in the recent Euro elections, Vince…
This was Chuka's result in Streatham at GE2017. Will be able to defend that as an LD. The seat had just about the biggest remain vote at the referendum. pic.twitter.com/XpGgdVwzL8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2019 Quite refreshing to read an interview where someone admits that they were flat wrong about something this big: https://t.co/nPjwsrZUlv — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) June 13, 2019
Heidi Allen, and the former Labour MP Chuka Umunna, are among those thought to be considering defecting to Lib Dems https://t.co/JdN3aRrrCn — Lisa O'Carroll (@lisaocarroll) June 4, 2019 I’m told Sarah Wollaston is leaving Change UK. — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) June 4, 2019 It appears Change UK might be about to undergo some fundamental change, The Guardian report that Up to half of Change UK’s MPs are poised to leave the fledgling political party after its dismal performance in the European elections….