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It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency

It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency

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Tim Smith Univ of Nottingham The vote shares of first time incumbents held up the most A short paper headed “Lib Dem incumbency advantage persists but fails to prevent disaster” by Tim Smith of the University of Nottingham has just been published and provides valuable evidence of the power of first time incumbency. This happens when someone who won for the first time at the previous elections seeks to defend the seat. The table above shows the very different performances…

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David Herdson looks at the LDs following the GE15 outcome

David Herdson looks at the LDs following the GE15 outcome

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This was the biggest disaster in nearly a century? The Lib Dems and their predecessors have been through some bad times over the years but what faces them now is their worst crisis in nearly a century. It is worse than the splits over Ireland under Gladstone that ended their pre-eminent position in the country; it is worse than the division between Asquith and Lloyd George, which ended them as a party of government; it is worse than the post-merger…

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Meanwhile away from UKIP runners declare themselves in 3 political races and an 8/1 tip from Damian McBride

Meanwhile away from UKIP runners declare themselves in 3 political races and an 8/1 tip from Damian McBride

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The LAB leadership contest Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham announce Labour leadership bids http://t.co/ALs3cTkRak pic.twitter.com/n9AaIwBqJC — PoliticsHome (@politicshome) May 14, 2015 The LD leadership contest The least unexpected news of the day Farron to run for LD leadership http://t.co/NaQpE7GhOV pic.twitter.com/SHxZnS7NnP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2015 LAB selection for the 2016 London Mayoral race Join the movement to deliver the change that London needs. We're launching next week… http://t.co/zwsqzRDbSZ pic.twitter.com/YnVQPdc1B1 — Tessa Jowell (@TessaJowell) May 13, 2015 London: it’s…

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Mr. Cameron might rue the day that his party was reluctant to embrace the reform of the House of Lords

Mr. Cameron might rue the day that his party was reluctant to embrace the reform of the House of Lords

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The numbers look potentially tricky A key moment in the last parliament was in July 2012 when CON back-bench rebels voted down a timetable motion on the Lords Reform bill thus making it highly unlikely that it would get through the house. A few days later Cameron pulled the plans completely – a move that led to Mr. Clegg pulling the plug on boundary reform. So the upper house remains unreformed something that could be tricky for the government as…

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And so now we turn to leader resignations triggering off 3 leadership contests

And so now we turn to leader resignations triggering off 3 leadership contests

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Ed makes it all three pic.twitter.com/jYTApArKfm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2015 Clegg confirms pic.twitter.com/TZJf15EFoJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2015 A problem for the LDs is that there are only eight MPs to choose from. Front runner must be Tim Farron and my guess is that he compete against the North Norfolk MP, Norman Lamb. Mixed message from Farage in his resignation speech Farage resigns but hints that he might stand again pic.twitter.com/5g3ebQV9YC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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Vince Cable the next Lib Dem leader?

Vince Cable the next Lib Dem leader?

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Video of Vince Cable’s most memorable moment from when he was the acting Lib Dem Leader in 2007 Today’s Sunday Times reports VINCE CABLE, the business secretary, is being tipped by senior Liberal Democrats as the party’s next leader if Nick Clegg loses his seat or resigns after a poor result in the general election. Cable, 71, who had all but ruled himself out of any leadership contest, is now being promoted by senior Lib Dems as a “safe pair…

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It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t name candidates

It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t name candidates

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Why the LDs are releasing some of their private polling Yesterday I received the full media briefing on the controversial private LD polling which has attracted a lot of attention. I was able to ask about any seat and have a pretty good picture of how things are looking. The reason for the part disclosure is to make a very simple point that naming the candidates can make a huge difference – as seen in the one poll that was…

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Norman Lamb, my long-term bet for Clegg’s replacement, moves a step closer to being a leadership contender

Norman Lamb, my long-term bet for Clegg’s replacement, moves a step closer to being a leadership contender

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Norman Lamb could be the "stop Farron" candidate if there's an early LD leadership fight http://t.co/nnKi8Y4nBh pic.twitter.com/vsRgO7hIWw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2015 The Indy on Sunday is reporting this morning that a number of the party’s peers and MPs have approached him about being a candidate should there be a post May 7th leadership contest. It reports: Speaking before the Lib Dem spring conference in Liverpool this week, Mr Lamb admitted he is thinking about running. ‘When people raise…

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