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Category: Leaders’ TV debates

The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

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Via @montie The line up for Thursday night's debate pic.twitter.com/ttXLBB3ktU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 How do you create interesting betting market for 7 way debate? This from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/wl6zvGgjFM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 The line up on the stage was decided by lots being drawn this morning. It is hard to work out who has come out best. Farage has Clegg on his left and Miliband on his right though he’s some way…

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By accident or design, the election’s got a debate series that could work

By accident or design, the election’s got a debate series that could work

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Multiple structures will probe the parties & leaders In a little over nine months’ time, the US presidential hopefuls will be campaigning hard in the then snow-bound small rural state of Iowa, the first in a long process of state-wide elections that will ultimately determine the two parties’ nominations. That process has evolved over the years, partly organically, partly by design but the main reason there’s been little wholesale reform in the schedule, despite offerings to that end being put…

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And the winner so far is – Update ICM calls it for Dave

And the winner so far is – Update ICM calls it for Dave

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The winner of tonight's debate was #BattleForNumber10 pic.twitter.com/fBGvcyNiF7 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 26, 2015 Jeremy Paxman proved why he’s the best in the business. But I do wonder if Ed Miliband’s “Hell Yeah”when Paxman asked him if he was “tough enough to deal with the likes of Putin” maybe the most memorable event from the whole debates and interviews. Whether it is for good or ill, we will soon find out. Though Paxman’s off mic comment at the end to…

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Let the debates begin

Let the debates begin

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  Well the interviews at least. You can watch the event live by clicking the youtube video below.   I think Ed will be perceived to be the winner from tonight’s events, because the old maxim of success equals performance minus expectation, and the expecation for Ed is probably lower than it is for David Cameron, especially after David Cameron’s successful performance at PMQs yesterday. Will one or both of them have a surprise in store? I expect the other…

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So the debates are happening

So the debates are happening

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The first event is four days away. Yesterday it was confirmed that we would have the debates and the format of said debates, they are as follows 26th March: Live question and answer programme on Channel 4 and Sky News featuring David Cameron and Ed Miliband, presented by Jeremy Paxman and Kay Burley 2nd April: Debate with the following party leaders David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage, Natalie Bennett, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood on ITV, moderated by Julie Etchingham…

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TNS poll has the Tories ahead whilst there appears to be progress on the debates

TNS poll has the Tories ahead whilst there appears to be progress on the debates

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Latest @TNS_UK poll out Con 33 (+5) Lab 32 (-3) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 17 (-1) Greens 4 (-3) http://t.co/6OZfbbWkwQ — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 17, 2015 It appears as though TNS big move from to CON one might be partly due to methodology change. No mention now weighting back to 2014 Euros — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2015   Meanwhile on the debates, there has been progress or has there? Looks like there is progress on the leaders' debates http://t.co/qtAs0UpXJr pic.twitter.com/rX544YhirR —…

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Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

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Whilst most voters think the debates will influence the way the vote Ipsos Mori have done some polling which asks how many voters have made up their mind on how to vote, and what will influence the way they will vote. The fieldwork for the polling was early to mid February, so well before the recent contretemps over the debates. So David Cameron’s non appearance in the debates could fundamentally damage the Tories as we can see from the above…

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One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga

One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga

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Tories move to a 64% chance of winning most seats on Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/cvOGXUnbdz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 All published polls since start of month pic.twitter.com/GAhfqPNumI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 Only fly in the ointment for the blues – Populus Those who were concluding that Dave and the blue team would not be damaged by the debates issue now have an answer. With both Ashcroft and latest showing 4% leads the strong Tory start…

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