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Category: Leader approval ratings

New polling finds just 28% of GE2017 LAB voters support the party’s stance on Brexit

New polling finds just 28% of GE2017 LAB voters support the party’s stance on Brexit

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And Corbyn slumps to a post-GE2017 YouGov leader rating low New polling data just made available on the YouGov website shows the scale of the gamble LAB is taking with the party’s stance on Brexit. To the question “Do you support or oppose the stance that the Labour party have taken towards Brexit?” GE2017 LAB voters split by 28% to 25% on whether they supported or opposed. This is an incredibly low proportion given how important Brexit dominates current politics…

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Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

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The Blair-Major MORI satisfaction ratings before GE1997 The Cameron-Brown Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings before GE2010 Current Corbyn-May Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings My thanks to James Bowley for the analysis, compiling the data and the charts. The Ipsos-MORI ratings have been used because these have been recorded at regular intervals since 1977. The proposition works for the only other LOTO to become PM since this polling started – Mrs. Thatcher. In the 1979 polls before the election she led the PM, James Callaghan,…

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Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

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Corbyn needs to turn things round for LAB to have a chance The end of the Party Conference season is a good time to look back at the past year through the prism of the Ipsos MORI leader satisfaction ratings. This is part of the longest running polling series in the UK and is now in its fifth decade. As can be seen from the chart both leaders have experienced a marked decline in the levels of satisfaction over the…

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TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corbyn

TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corbyn

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The latest numbers in what is by far the longest series of leader ratings in British politics, the satisfied/dissatisfied figures from Ipsos-MORI, are out and show TMay just about holding steady but with a sizeable drop for Corbyn. Fieldwork took place before yesterday’s EU summit in Salzburg. As can be seen both are in negative territory but Corbyn’s on net minus 42% while TMay is at minus 33%. To put that into context – in July 2017 Corbyn was on…

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Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

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And will young voter enthusiasm be retained? Unlike Alastair Meeks on the previous thread I am far less certain that Labour, certainly under Corbyn, have a good chance of winning most seats, let alone getting a majority at the next election. The boundaries, the lack of any discernable progress in Scotland and the ongoing blowback from Corbyn’s cack-handed handling of the antisemitism issue are going to make it hard. This thread is about another potential challenge – the changes in…

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Corbyn’s leader ratings have slumped sharply since the start of the year

Corbyn’s leader ratings have slumped sharply since the start of the year

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I’ve just discovered a Wikipedia page which seeks to record all the main leader ratings from the leading pollsters. The page describes itself as being confined to “approval ratings” which it doesn’t. Instead we see a range of four or five different formats. Unfortunately the page isn’t quite as comprehensive as it suggests and I have had to add to the polls covered in my version of the spreadsheet above of 2018 ratings for Mr Corbyn. The trend for the…

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Voting intention polls – the fools’ gold of predicting elections. Leader ratings do it better

Voting intention polls – the fools’ gold of predicting elections. Leader ratings do it better

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A week before GE17 and TMay’s best PM dominance is crumbling TMay's lead over Corbyn on YouGov "Best PM" tracker has dropped 25 points in past 2 months pic.twitter.com/olqsZ74eSp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2017 4 days before GE17: few pay attention to Ipsos’s satisfaction numbers Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 PB regulars will know that…

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LAB voters have become much less enamoured with their leader since GE2017

LAB voters have become much less enamoured with their leader since GE2017

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The stance on antisemitism, Brexit or are other factors at play? The chart above shows the net satisfaction ratings for Jeremy Corbyn from Ipsos MORI in every published poll since the last general election. Note how this was remaining relatively solid until April this year when there was a dramatic drop which has remained. The trend refelects as well with Labours position in the national voting polls. From the general election until mid March Corbyn’s team were doing pretty well…

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