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Category: Leader approval ratings

Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst young voters for first time since GE2017

Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst young voters for first time since GE2017

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Corbyn could be losing his advantages with the youth vote The narrative that started following the shock general election result last June was that Corbyn and his party had managed tap into the youth vote who were turning out in greater numbers than at recent elections. Much of this can be seen in looking at the age splits to leadership ratings and who would make the best prime minister findings from different pollsters since the election. Certainly up to now…

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Corbyn’s Opinium net approval ratings trail both Cable and May by 10 points

Corbyn’s Opinium net approval ratings trail both Cable and May by 10 points

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The May Opinium poll for the Observer is just out including what is the only leader approval ratings series from any UK pollster. The latest numbers are in the chart and TMay’s -8% is exactly the same as last month. Corbyn has improved a point to -18% whiule Cable sees his number move from -18% to -8%. Opinium’s best PM ratings follow the trend of other pollsters with 36% saying they would prefer TMay as PM, against 23% for Corbyn….

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LAB supporters are deluding themselves if they think an anti-CON rainbow coalition would automatically back Corbyn for PM

LAB supporters are deluding themselves if they think an anti-CON rainbow coalition would automatically back Corbyn for PM

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Corbyn’s poor leader ratings highlight the weakness Ever since general election seat projections like the one from Sky above have appeared LAB supporters and Corbyn enthusiasts have been saying that last Thursday the party won LE2018 and if it had been had a general election then Corbyn would be the one being called to the Palace. This is based on the unfounded and somewhat arrogant assumption by LAB that all the SNP, LD, PC and GRN MPs would simply line…

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Corbyn’s Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings drop to lowest point since GE2017

Corbyn’s Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings drop to lowest point since GE2017

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Just three out of five LAB voters give him positive rating Meanwhile there’s some voting intention cheer for the LDs LDs up 4% to 10% with @IpsosMORI – their highest share in any poll since GE2017 pic.twitter.com/YysjQCFjhn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2018 The big story from the April Ipsos MORI poll in the Standard is a further deterioration in Mr corbyn’s satisfaction ratings. These, from the pollster, have been asking the same format for well over 40 years…

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LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn’s leader ratings should be a cause for concern

LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn’s leader ratings should be a cause for concern

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His handling of the antisemitism issue might be driving this The above the data comes from Opinium the only pollster which does at least a monthly survey of leader approval ratings which means that we have sufficient data points to identify trend. The last numbers were from fieldwork last week before Tuesdays antisemitism debate in the Commons which got a lot of very negative coverage ad helped to deflect a little from Mrs. May’s Windrush problem. What is striking is…

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If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

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Could it reverse TMay’s steady recovery since GE2017? Above is a chart based on Opinium’s net approval ratings for the PM since GE2017. I choose this pollster because it is one of just two that just about always every month publish the latest leader ratings which gives us enough data points for analysis. I wish other firms would follow this lead. As can be seen TMay made something of a recovery in the immediate post-election period until October when the…

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Why we should focus much more on leader ratings and less on voting intention

Why we should focus much more on leader ratings and less on voting intention

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If we’d done that last June the outcome would have been much less of a shock The publication of two sets of leader ratings by Deltapoll and YouGov over the weekend has put a lot of attention on these regular trackers which the records suggest are a better guide to what will happen in elections than voting intention polls. We know that the voting numbers with one exception in GE2017 joined GE2015 and GE1992 in being some way out and…

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Despite 34% voters thinking Jeremy Corbyn personally has anti-Semitic views Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are near identical to Corbyn

Despite 34% voters thinking Jeremy Corbyn personally has anti-Semitic views Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are near identical to Corbyn

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Further proof that Johnson’s going to pull out of another Tory leadership contest? I’m a fan of approval ratings as they are a very good pointers to general elections, as Mrs May’s alarming collapse in the closing stages of the 2017 general election confirmed.  So this morning’s debut poll by DeltaPoll caught my eye for this very reason. For many Tories Boris Johnson is the man to win the Tories a majority in 2022 against Corbyn but if his ratings…

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