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Category: Labour

Could Mandy end up being the biggest loser?

Could Mandy end up being the biggest loser?

Why has he written to the Times today? One of the problems with having a “back story” like Peter Mandelson, fairly or unfairly, is that the default assumption is that you are up to no good. So what are we to make of the latest developments in “Yachtgate” where Mandy has written to the Times today to “explain” that his contacts with the Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, went back two years further than previously publicly stated. So his first account…

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How can Gord/Mandy get these numbers down?

How can Gord/Mandy get these numbers down?

How can Cameron be stopped if the Tories are in the 40s? In the panel above are the Tory shares from the latest polls by the six firms that carry out monthly voting intention polls in Britain. There seem to be two clusters – ComRes/ICM/YouGov which have the party in the low 40s with Populus/MORI/BPIX recording shares in the mid-40s. These have varied from time to time but in spite of all that’s been happening Labour has found it all…

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How does the Labour leadership market look now?

How does the Labour leadership market look now?

Is Ed now better value than David? In the light of all that’s happened over the last few extraordinary weeks, including Brown’s role in managing the economic crisis and even a Republican administration buying shares in American banks, now may be a good time to reconsider the Labour leadership market – especially as last night’s polls suggest that the party’s performance remains distinctly anaemic. The table above is courtesy of Shadsy and “The Magic Sign”, and there are one or…

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Could the next polls put Labour back in contention?

Could the next polls put Labour back in contention?

What if Cameron’s no longer seen as Prime Minister-designate? For reasons that I’ve never been able to fathom most of the regular monthly polls that we see in the UK are published in the final part of the month. So this weekend and in the days after that I am expecting at least two ComRes polls, two YouGov polls, one ICM survey and the October political monitor by Ipsos-MORI. There might be others including the non-registered BPIX. One or possibly…

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Could the bail-out deal come unstuck?

Could the bail-out deal come unstuck?

What are the dangers of renegotiating the deal? After all the benefit that Brown and Labour has got out of the bail-out deal this morning’s Guardian front page could make uncomfortable reading and create a potentially tricky problem. The challenge is that Lloyds TSB is lobbying for less stringent terms being imposed on it in return for the injection of tax-payer cash and in the current context that looks like a hard political sell. Under the arrangement that was hammered…

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Was Brown Labour’s “Weakest Link” in 1997?

Was Brown Labour’s “Weakest Link” in 1997?

What does this say about his potential at the next general election? Almost everybody with an interest in politics remembers May 1st 1997 – the day that Tony Blair’s Labour party swept to power after eighteen years in the wilderness. The 13% margin in the popular vote and the way anti Tory voters were prepared to vote for whoever in their seat had the best chance of beating the Tory meant that Labour’s landslide majority was substantially greater than any…

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Spread punters flee the Tories

Spread punters flee the Tories

The latest prices suggest an overall Tory majority of just 26 seats After a morning of considerable activity on the commons seats spread betting markets there’s been a sharp move against the Tories and towards Labour as punters reappraise the new situation following the bank bail-out and how it is being viewed both in the UK and overseas. Only two of the three main markets – Sporting Index and Spreadfair – have been open this morning. IG – which used…

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Is today’s move going to help or hinder Labour?

Is today’s move going to help or hinder Labour?

Now the battle moves on to who will get the blame? On what the BBC business editor, Robert Peston, is calling “Momentous Monday” the FTSE 100 has moved up more than 100 points as the City digests the news that RBS is now 60% owned by the government with a 40% share being held in the newly merging Lloyds and HBOS. As part of the deal the chief executives and chairmen of both RBS and HBOS are resigning and Peston…

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