How will his statement go down with worried MPs? One of the “smart” elements of the Green arrest was the timing. It happened just as Parliament was going into a five day recess ahead of the Queen’s Speech and the start of the new parliamentary year. This meant that there was no immediate platform for the issue of the police search of Green’s Commons’ office to be raised in the chamber. That all changes today and the Tories and the…
What about William Hill’s 6/4 price? I have just got a bet on with William Hill at 6/4 that Jacqui Smith will “will cease to be Home Secretary before the next General Election takes place”. The bookie only allowed me £80 although I wanted to put on £1000 – because these seem great odds. Even if Smith survives the current “Green-gate” affair Labour Home Secretaries have a record of not lasting very long and something else, surely, could come along…
News is just coming through of a Populus poll for the Times taken in the wake of Monday’s PBR statement. A voting intention question was not asked but the pollster weighted the sample by past votes which makes it politically representative. The findings are a marked contrast with the Telegraph’s YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and Tuesday. It is a real pity that there are no voting numbers. Peter Riddell reports in the Times: “Support for…
How secure is Labour’s polling base? PB’s cartoonist, Marf of LondonSketchbook.com, has come up with another cracker which is probably not far off the mark in summing up the mood in Downing Street. For after being so far behind for so long Gord wouldn’t be human if he didn’t get a lift from another poll showing that Labour is getting quite close. He must be careful, however, not to see seen to be using the crisis for party political purposes….
CONSERVATIVES 40% (-1) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (nc) Will this revive early election date speculation? A new YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and throughout yesterday provides a lot of reassurance for Labour after the momentous statement by Chancellor Darling on Monday. The splits show almost most no change on the last survey from the firm and runs against much of the so called “informed” comment that we saw in the immediate aftermath of the…
Is today the start of the election campaign? Make no mistake: the “leaks” that we’ve been seeing ahead of this afternoon’s PBR statement by the Chancellor have nothing to do with smart journalism or a desire by ministers to be open and accountable. This is all deliberate, well planned and is about shaping the environment in which the statement is received and, of course, trying to get one over on George Osborne. And before you shout that this is unfair…
Will the PBR make the media narrative a reality? It’s a measure of how completely potty the media has become in recent weeks that on the eve of the the PBR and all the talk of an early general election that there’s been an almost total news black-out on yesterday’s ICM showing the Tories on 42%, Labour on 31% with the Lib Dems scoring 19%. You would have thought that every little bit of polling data would have been devoured,…
But will the next set of polls follow MORI? The panel show the latest spread betting levels on the three main markets. There will be 650 seats next time so to ensure a majority a party will need 325. As can be seen there is now something of a division between IG Index and PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index. It’s not often you see a gap as large as five seats in the Tory and Labour spreads between the two companies….