Was this the secret of his popularity as chancellor? With a bit of luck there might be a weekend poll and if there is it could help us to answer one of the questions that is often posed – does seeing Gordon Brown or not seeing him on our screens everyday have an impact on Labour’s opinion poll ratings? For both he and David Cameron have been away for getting on for a fortnight so any new survey would have…
But what did a recovering economy do for Major in 1997? It has been one of the key hopes of Labour that the outcome of the general election will be determined by the economy and how well off voters feel by the time we get to polling day. So there should be delight in Downing Street with some of the new this morning. This is how the main front page story in today’s Guardian by Ashley Seager, economics correspondent, opens:-…
Did the shadow of Tony determine the historic decision? We are not far away from the second anniversary of what’s likely to go down as the defining decision of the Gordon Brown era – his cancelling in October 2007 of an early election. This is something that will be examined again and again in future years and still dominates our politics. For the polls during the Brown honeymoon had all been going Labour’s way and Brown apparently had a chance…
PaddyPower Is their value on this new market? Overnight, while doing the piece on Irish referendum, I checked the political markets of PaddyPower which I must admit I tend to overlook. This is a pity because they are building a good range of UK general election bets including the above one which I have not seen elsewhere. With the big trend at the moment being the erosion of Labour votes a market on the percentage vote share that they’ll end…
Why was that result so out of line? Just look at the table above showing the change in the actual number of votes cast for Labour in by elections in the current parliament. The list only features those constituencies that the party was defending and the change is compared with the general election. As is generally accepted parties in government do badly in such contests and Labour has lost half of them. But what happened at Glenrothes last November? It…
Have you joined the great Mandelson gamble? The news this morning that efforts are being made to find Peter Mandelson a safe Labour seat in County Durham for the general election has set off a big gamble on the political betting markets. Both Ladbrokes and William Hill have issued press release – the latter now making Mandelson 8/1 to be the next Labour leader. The Ladbrokes prices is a more comfortable 16/1. Ladbrokes say that for every pound at the…
PR Week But has Brown got it within him to do what’s required? This week’s edition of PR Week has an interesting interview with one of the world’s most highly paid political strategists – Mark Penn, global CEO of Burson-Marsteller – in which he holds up some hope for Labour? He’s quoted as saying: “Voters can and do take a second and even third look at their leaders. Tory leader David Cameron has hit a barrier, and a lot of…
YouGov Just look at how Lib Dem supporters are splitting The forced choice question that appears above is one that’s been included in the Telegraph’s monthly YouGov poll for several years now and I think is probably a good guide to potential tactical voting. For this asks simply: “If you had to choose which would you prefer to see after the next election a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?”. For me…