Is this the way to get Lib Dems to support Labour? There are poll findings out this morning from the Electoral Reform Society which might just offer a glimmer of hope to Brown Central in its bid for Labour not to be annihilated in the coming general election. For the response to questions bolted onto last week’s Sun YouGov poll seem to suggest that a promise of a referendum on voting reform might influence some voters – particularly those planning…
CON 42 (nc) LAB 28 (+2) LD 17 (-1) Another survey within the margin of error When we has the last YouGov survey in Monday’s Telegraph the main news was that Labour had dropped a couple of points. Well tonight’s poll for the Sun has Brown’s party back at 28% but the movement is well within the margin of error so you cannot conclude very much. Amongst other figures the paper reports: “Voters also say Mr Cameron would make a…
Sky News What’ll be the impact on the campaign? Things seem to be moving over a TV debate between the three main leaders during the general election campaign. There are reports that David Frost could be the chairman while Sky News has launched its own campaign. Is it going to happen? The challenge is that this could play such a vital role in the campaign that Cameron, Clegg and Brown (assuming it is he) have to be ultra-cautious. This would…
How dangerous is this September for Mr. Brown? The holidays are over, the party conferences are only a week or so away, and now we get the latest Lockerbie stories linking, in however a tenuous way, the prime minister. Mr. Brown hung on in the aftermath of the June 4th election disaster when Labour lost all of its remaining county councils, its national vote drop in the EU election dropping to just over 15% and what appeared to be a…
Article Updated 1855 Ipsos-Mori But remember what happened on May 1 1997? The above chart from MORI shows the changing to responses since 1997 to its economic optimism question which has been asked in the same manner for several decades. As can be seen there’s been a sharp rise in recent months and now the numbers are showing a net positive. Twelve years ago, just after the election, the trend continued and it touched +28 points – last month it…
Why I’m not risking any cash at the moment? Over the past four months I have studiously avoided the spread betting markets on the number of seats each of the parties will get at the next election – something that’s felt very strange because for years this has been my main betting arena. My Labour sell and Lib Dem buy contracts have been closed down at reasonable profits as I have waited to see how things look in for the…
CON 42 (nc) LAB 26 (-2) LD 18 (nc) So all the August polls are in the same territory Whether or not there’s a big effort at the Daily Telegraph to get us to buy printed copies of their paper I do not know but their August YouGov poll is now out and is not online. The figures are as above with the changes on the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the last from the pollster – in mid-August. Then…
Sunday Times Was it a “murky” deal for oil after all? The main lead in the Sunday Times tomorrow looks set to take the Megrahi release debate into new territory for the paper says it has leaked ministerial letters suggesting this was all about an oil deal with Libya. This is how the story starts: “The British government decided it was “in the overwhelming interests of the United Kingdom†to make Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, the Lockerbie bomber, eligible for…