Does no change at No. 10 mean back Balls? Thanks to Miranda Richardson on her Sky blog for highlighting the fairly equivocal responses by Peter Mandelson to the last couple of questions in this short interview. If this week was supposed to have produced a change of approach from Number 10 then why was the business secretary less than forthright in his closing responses. The conclusion, surely, is that Brown has won, there will be no real change in Labour’s…
Would replacing Brown be bad news for Clegg? Thanks to Ryans on a previous thread for highlighting the detailed finding in the week’s first YouGov poll on the party split when respondents were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if Brown was replaced. Normally I think we should be quite sceptical about such questions and I don’t think we should read too much into the scale of potential switching. But one thing stands out…
This is from the blog of the excellent Iain Martin of the Wall Street Journal:- “…the crucial meeting yesterday afternoon was between the chancellor and Gordon Brown. Alistair Darling and Brown were alone together; they were the only two in the room. But extraordinary rumors are emerging about what was said. I’ve heard from two Labour sources now that the conversation was very difficult and that Darling raised the possibility of Brown going, but the PM resisted. It would be…
Is Robinson right about the extent of the mutiny? For me the big development overnight in the “Snow-Plot” was the naming of six cabinet ministers on BBC TV by the corporation’s political editor, Nick Robinson who were alleged to be linked in some way to the Hoon-Hewitt move. The group include some heavy hitters including the deputy leader, the justice, foreign, Scottish and defence secretaries as well as a man who has always been regarded as a close Brown supporter,…
Could my December 2008 speculation come about? Back in December 2008 I put forward what I described as a “plan for Clegg” in the event that the Tories ended up with many more votes at the general election but behind Labour on seats. Such an outcome is highly possible if the gap between the parties gets down to five or six percent. On the one hand Clegg would find it hard with his own MPs and activists to deal with…
Telegraph Will it be PMMP after the election? Several papers, the Telegraph amongst them, carry reports of Mandy’s magazine interview in which he hints of his desire to return to the Commons as an MP. PaddyPower and Ladbrokes both make him fifth favourite to succeed Brown at 9/1 and 8/1 respectively. Yet for that to happen he needs to ditch his life peerage and that requires a current law change move to get through parliament quickly enough so he can…
New Statesman What do we make of Kellner’s assessments? There’s a good assessment of the scale of the challenge facing Labour in the latest News Statesman from the president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, in which he examines the elements behind the recent revival in the party’s hopes. Kellner’s themes will be familiar to PB regulars. “The Conservatives’ poll lead has been shrinking.” “Well, up to a point….One much-reported MORI poll, in November, put the lead at just 6 points, but…
Latest Ipsos-MORI issues index Is Sunny Hundal misreading the data? There’s a fascinating debate going on amongst Labour/left bloggers over whether the party’s apparent “class war” strategy is the right way to go. The Scottish Labour MP, Tom Harris, is very much against arguing that “.the only strategy Labour should even consider is one which aims to see us re-elected with a working overall majority in the Commons. Setting our sights anywhere lower than that would be a betrayal of…