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Category: Labour

Is the Jon Cruddas Wagon about to Roll?

Is the Jon Cruddas Wagon about to Roll?

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Expectations of a Leadership Bid launch next week     A further development in the Labour leadership campaign this evening to add to David Miliband’s earlier announcement is that Jon Cruddas seems very likely to stand, having apparently told the Compass Group that the party needs a new direction.  Paul Waugh has tweeted to expect an announcement of a leadership bid next week. Cruddas stood for the Deputy Leadership 3 years ago as a voice from outside the elite and of…

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Will this motivate working-class women?

Will this motivate working-class women?

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For me the striking thing about Labour’s final week campaign is not the effectiveness of the poster itself but who it it aimed at. For study after study has shown that the group most detached from the political process are younger working class women. Not only are they less likely to vote than working class men of the same age but they are also much less likely to have any political allegiance. But how do you get to them? In…

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Opinion polls and postal voting

Opinion polls and postal voting

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The piece by Anthony Wells on postal voting and opinion polls on UKPR is a good reminder that things can now get a bit complex given that perhaps one in five of all votes will be made by post. What happens when the pollster calls or someone fills in an internet form when they have already voted? Almost all the firms adapt their voting intention question to take into account this possibility but they cannot report them separately. As Anthony…

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Marf on the manifesto & more polls

Marf on the manifesto & more polls

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You can see more of Marf’s work at LondonSketchbook.com Meanwhile the gap gets closer with ICM ICM – Guardian Apr 11 Apr 9 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LABOUR 31% 30% LIB DEMS 20% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 5.5% Even though the changers are within the margin of error this poll might just cause a few jitters at Cameron Towers for the gap has closed a touch and the party is even further off that 40 point threshold….

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Will Lib Dems take notice of “Adonis the Defector”

Will Lib Dems take notice of “Adonis the Defector”

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Could his call be counter-productive? The Indy’s front page features a plea from Baron Adonis, a former Liberal Democrat councillor in Oxford and ex-PPC, to supporters of the party he defected from to support Labour on May 6th in order to stop the Tories. His first target of supporters of his former party in Labour-Tory marginals because, “a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote which helps the Tories against progressive policies.” That’s fairly standard rhetoric and is central…

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But YouGov has the Tories back in the 40s

But YouGov has the Tories back in the 40s

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YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 5 Apr 2 CONSERVATIVES 41% 39% LABOUR 31% 29% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 6.5% What do we make of the conflicting figures? So there we have it – the YouGov daily poll where the fieldwork finished this evening showing very different numbers from the Guardian/ICM poll earlier with the margin down to just four points. But like ICM the Labour share has increased with YouGov – so…

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Is this the message Labour should be putting over?

Is this the message Labour should be putting over?

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Does Marf’s cartoon hit the nail on the head? In all the discussion over Labour’s “Gene Hunt” poster everybody seems to have by-passed what the party’s core message ought to be – the need to counter the desire for something different that polling suggests is what getting on for two-thirds of voters want. For as has been said so often there are only two big ideas in election battles – either it is “time for change” or “don’t let the…

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Who’ll follow Gordon as Labour Leader?

Who’ll follow Gordon as Labour Leader?

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Could it all be over by the Summer? The problem with party leadership markets is that the timescales are so uncertain. If Gordon Brown serves as long as Tony Blair did as Labour leader, he’ll be there for another ten years. Alternatively, Brown’s successor could be in place by the Summer holidays. With all the attention on the General Election, perhaps now might be a good time to look to a relatively forgotten market that could soon become very live….

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