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Category: Labour

Miliband’s Achilles’ heel: those who backed Brown

Miliband’s Achilles’ heel: those who backed Brown

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Never mind the LD switchers, the biggest threat to Labour was already in the Red column One assertion that receives a regular hearing on politicalbetting is that Labour is in an extremely strong position to win the next election thanks to that group of voters who switched from Lib Dem to Labour in 2010.  They’ve been consistent in their support ever since and remain favourably disposed towards Miliband and Labour.  Add in that UKIP’s support has come disproportionately from Con,…

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There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

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And a lot of 2010 non-voters seem to back Farage’s party The above chart is based on the aggregate data from Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling which had a total sample of 14,004. The first factor to stand out is that much more of UKIP’s current support in these key battlegrounds continues to come from ex-Tories than from ex-LAB voters. This means, of course, that the blues will benefit most should UKIP support fade. Secondly, given UKIP…

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Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

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From the recent @LordAshcroft CON-LAB marginals poll: Miliband's most enthusiastic backers – LD-LAB switchers pic.twitter.com/NJ6f8TaN7W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 It’s a totally different election with very different dynamics There’s no doubt that Tony Blair’s GE1997 victory, coming as it did after four election defeats over the previous 18 years, was a stunning success. Blair did it by reinventing his party so it would appeal to large swaithes of voters who never before had done anything other than…

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Ex-UKIP leader chosen by Tories to fight the seat’s where Farage is said to be interested

Ex-UKIP leader chosen by Tories to fight the seat’s where Farage is said to be interested

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CON choose ex-UKIP leader to fight Thanet S Against Farage? My money's now going on LAB in this tight 3-way marginal pic.twitter.com/eG2CKD2MGQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2014 The tactical anti-UKIP vote could now go to LAB Latest Thanet S betting Ukip favourite pic.twitter.com/c2sFbpGDLQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2014

Labour in Newark: Ruthless or wrongheaded?

Labour in Newark: Ruthless or wrongheaded?

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Soft-pedalling the campaign is a sign of both weakness and strength Conventional wisdom says that general elections are won or lost based on the decisions of a few tens of thousands of swing voters across the country’s marginal seats.  As an assertion, it was never entirely true – those voters made next to no difference in 1983 or 1997 for example – but in an increasingly fractured party system, the assumptions on which it rests become more and more questionable….

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Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

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English council results so far via the BBC. pic.twitter.com/a1qcl07rZ3 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 23, 2014 Like opinion polls, it is wise not to focus on one or two councils, but look at the broader picture. Often success  equals performance minus anticipation, using Rallings and Thrasher’s projections for the locals, of Lab 490 gains, the Cons and Lib Dems 220 and 350 losses respectively, and UKIP to make 80 gains, so far it is a great set of elections…

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Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

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Also Ukip sees big increase in 2010 LAB switchers The chart shows the responses of those telling ICM in their last six polls that they voted Labour at GE2010 but have now switched to either “Dont know/Refused” or Ukip. As can be seen there has been a marked increase in switching to the purples but by far and away the biggest element has been the increase in 2010 LAB voters now saying they don’t know or simply refusing to given…

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Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summer of 2010

Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summer of 2010

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Next poll up this week is Ipsos-MORI political monitor. Will it continue Labour's terrible polling week? pic.twitter.com/X3HcpFpNnQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014 The red team’s terrible polling week continues When on Monday monrning the latest Populus poll came out showing LAB on 36% just a point ahead of the Tories it didn’t attract much attention. Since its big party ID weightings change in February the firm has been showing some of the worst LAB position and this just…

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