The first scalp for Lynton Crosby? A report in today’s Sun by the paper’s political editor, Trevor Kavanagh says that Tony Blair is preparing to sideline the head of Labour’s election campaign, Alan Milburn. This follows fears of a Tory revival. According to Kavanagh, who has a reputation for getting all the top Downing Street scoops, Milburn “is seen as a flop”. He makes way for Gordon Brown, who only last week was hailed by Blair as the “best Chancellor…
Are Hain’s concerns more than just campaign rhetoric? This week’s 7% Populus Poll lead might have calmed some Labour nerves but it might also have reinforced what some party strategists think could be the real problem – complacency. In comments a couple of days ago the Commons leader, Peter Hain, reported that after a tour of 20 key marginals he had found a worrying level of apathy among supporters that was of a magnitude that could let the Tories back…
Will voters care about today’s Guardian revelations? The extent to which the Iraq war will be a General Election issue could be tested by revelations in the Guardian today that the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith QC, warned Prime Minister Tony Blair less than two weeks before the invasion that military action could be deemed illegal. According to the report, the Government was so concerned that it might be prosecuted that it set up a team of lawyers to prepare for…
Could this be the scene in Downing Street on May 6th? If the coming election goes according to intenet firm, YouGov, then the result could be a lot closer than many are envisaging. For while the conventional surveys have leads of upto 12% theYouGov numbers have stayed remarkably constant for months with Labour finding it hard to get above 35%. And it only requires a small slippage on that and we are in the danger area where a small movement…
According to the Independent on Sunday’s main story this morning Labour’s campaign chief, Alan Milburn, warned delegates at a private meeting at the party conference in Gateshead that the party had to “fight dirty” in order to avoid defeat. The report by Andy McSmith and Francis Elliott states: Alan Milburn secretly told Labour activists yesterday that the party needs to keep up its “dirty tricks” campaign to raise public interest in the coming general election, or see the Government’s 161-seat…
Updated 0930 But System 3 shows a different picture A YouGov poll of Scottish voters in Scotland on Sunday today has with changes from a similar poll north of the border in June – LAB 33 (-4), SNP 20 (-2), LD 20 (+4), CON 19 (+2). The paper calculates that, on a uniform swing, that of Scotland’s 59 seats Labour would get 37, the Lib Dems 13, the SNP 6 and the Conservatives 3. So even with less than a…
Is Fortress Labour vulnerable? All the talk on the site is how can the Tories and Lib Dems make inroads into the the scores of seats that they have to take in order to make an impact at the coming election. But there’s hardly any attention paid to how Labour is going about holding onto the exceptional and disproportionate gains that it chalked up in 1997 and 2001. In both elections it will be recalled Labour’s seat tally was well…
updated 0645 After all the fuss about the alleged anti-semitic tone of Labour’s election advertising the party has now launched its main slogan for the coming election – “Britain – forward not back” And if you think that you’ve heard this line before you have – from Michael Howard! As Curtis, one of our eagle-eyed users has spotted, the phrase “…forward not back” was the same slogan used by the Tory leader when he announced his candiditure in October 2003….