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Category: Labour

Labour down just a touch in the PB.C Election Index

Labour down just a touch in the PB.C Election Index

But the Cameron-hype has yet to move punters In the final Politicalbetting General Election Index before David Cameron takes over the Tory leadership there has just been a slight move, less than 0.2% on the week, in our implied probability calculation based on best betting prices in the Labour winning most seats markets. But the pre-result publicity hype for Cameron has yet to get gamblers reaching for their credit cards. As the chart shows there has been a drop in…

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Kelly & Beckett – joint favourites for first sacking of 2006

Kelly & Beckett – joint favourites for first sacking of 2006

What do we make of the “Cabinet Sack Race 2006” Politics can be a cruel business and betting on political outcomes can make it seem crueler. In its latest market line Paddy Power is taking bets on which senior Labour minister will be first out in the New Year. And according to the bookmaker the joint favorites are two of the most senior women in Tony Blair’s Government, Margaret Beckett the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary and Ruth Kelly…

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Could Labour’s selection process make it vulnerable to attack?

Could Labour’s selection process make it vulnerable to attack?

Should the unions have 33.3% of the votes for the next Prime Minister? When Tony Blair was elected Labour’s leader in 1994 it was the first time that every single member of the party had a vote and great play was made of the fact that this was a more democratic process than the Tories. It was partly as a result of this that William Hague initiated the changes in the Tory system that leaves the final choice with a…

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Could Gordon go the way of Dean and Davis?

Could Gordon go the way of Dean and Davis?

Is the Chancellor really a 73.5% certainty? With the long awaited Turner Report on pension due to be published today and the attention focusing again on the Chancellor the PBC index puts his chances of taking over Tony Blair at 73.5%. Our chart shows the the implied probability of him getting the job and is based on best betting prices. The only decision, for the Labour party, it is said, is whether he goes through unopposed or whether there is…

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YouGov: Cameron would beat Blair 41-38

YouGov: Cameron would beat Blair 41-38

But survey shows he’d be 5 point behind Brown As a curtain-raiser for their Tory leadership debate today Sky News has commissioned YouGov to test different Tory-Labour leadership combinations. It’s headline conclusion is that the 39 year-old cyclist, David Cameron, is ahead of Tony Blair. In a form of polling that forces respondents to choose between two options without any regard for any other party these were the main splits:- Cameron-Blair 41-38 Davis-Blair 36-41 Cameron-Brown 38-43 Brown-Davis 46-32 We’ve said…

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PB.C “Blair Third Term Index” at 22.7%

PB.C “Blair Third Term Index” at 22.7%

Has the PM turned the corner after the Terror Bill defeat? The collective view of people prepared to risk their money predicting political outcomes is that Tony Blair has a 22.7% chance of completing the majority of a normal third term as Prime Minister. Using implied probabilities based on historical and current betting prices we are making a regular feature of how punters are rating the key political issues. Our first – the betting market assessment of Labour winning most…

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Is attacking Cameron on drugs the best strategy for Labour?

Is attacking Cameron on drugs the best strategy for Labour?

Could “Daily Mail-speak” be having less influence? Will Labour’s first big Labour onslaught on David Cameron after, as expected, he becomes Tory leader on December 6th be on illegal drugs. Not only would an attack focus further on the ambivalence of the 39 year-old’s personal statements but it’s the one policy area where he has said a lot on the record that Labour spinners could use against him. For one aspect of Cameron’s relative lack of front bench experience is…

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Could Labour and the Lib Dems skip a generation as well?

Could Labour and the Lib Dems skip a generation as well?

.. Might David Milband and Ed Davey benefit from the “Cameron effect”? One side effect of the emergence of David Cameron for the Tory leadership has been a change on the betting markets for the Labour leadership. The 54 year old Gordon Brown remains, of course, the red-hot odds on favourite but in recent weeks there’s been money going on the 40 year old Minister of State for Communities and Local Government, David Miliband who joined the Cabinet in May….

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