Whose career prospects will look better tonight? This afternoon’s budget looks set to become the first one for many decades when there’ll be almost as much interest in the response of the Leader of the Opposition as in the contents of the Chancellor’s statement itself. For this will be the first time that David Cameron has faced Gordon Brown across the floor of the House in what is likely to be a foretaste of things to come. How will Brown’s…
The bad headlines are barely having an impact Even though he is under the most intensive media pressure the detailed numbers, just out, from Sunday’s YouGov poll show that those planning to vote Labour are overwhelmingly loyal to the triple General Election winner Tony Blair. A total of 85% think Tony Blair is doing well in the job – only two points below the way Tory supporters are rating David Cameron. The Labour supporters disagree by 41-34 with the suggestion…
Now just 3.2/1 that he’ll be gone by the end of June The “honours for loans” crisis in the immediate aftermath of the Education bill rebellion and the Tessa Jowell issues has caused a sharp move on the “When will Blair go?” betting markets. The above chart shows the implied probability of him leaving Downing Street in the period April-June on the Betfair betting exchange. For the first time, bookmakers William Hill reckon that Tony Blair is most likely to…
In spite of Tony’s problems few punters are rushing to back Brown Generally, whenever Tony Blair is in trouble, you see a spurt of betting on Gordon Brown in the Labour leadership market. The big disincentive of locking up money on the Chancellor is the thought that you might have to wait years for the leadership to be resolved and for you to see a return. But in the past there’s been a rush to back Brown whenever Blair has…
No rush to bet on an early departure The above chart shows the implied probability of Tony Blair surviving for another 21 months and is based on best betting prices. It shows that there has been just a small dip linked to the Education Bill but the market impact is nothing like what it was in the aftermath of last November’s terror bill defeat. Clearly having to rely on Tory support to get a main policy bill through its second…
Will Cameron’s strategy hasten Blair’s departure time-table? Tomorrow’s Commons vote on the Government’s Education Bill is taking on a huge significance with commentators trying to assess the impact of almost almost every political development, whether linked to the Bill or not, on what will happen. Thus yesterday’s announcement of 800 British troops being withdrawn from Iraq is being seen as a move by Downing Street to keep the rebellion down. The latest sleaze allegations, that Labour solicited loans rather than…
Michael Meacher blasts the Stephen Byers plan A revolutionary new plan to change the way in which the Labour leader is elected is being proposed by the former minister, Stephen Byers. According to the veteran MP, Michael Meacher in the Guardian this morning Labour’s NEC will discuss a document this month called the Party Renewal Project which, along with other proposals, sets out a revolutionary way of choosing the leader. Instead of the current complex arrangement involving the trade unions,…
Has Tony handed him a poison chalice? With the attention being on the new “soft focus” Gordon Brown’s wider role few people seem to have picked up on a couple of paragraphs in the Observer at the weekend about Labour’s campaign for the May local elections. For with a “a bloodbath of councillors across the country” expected the plan, apparently, is that Gordon Brown should have a role that means that he takes the rap for any failures. According to…