New poll finds anti-Scottish bias south of the border With two of the possible contenders or the coming Labour leadership battle being Scottish – Gordon Brown and John Reid – there are some worrying findings for the party in an an ICM poll carried out for today’s “Politics Show” on BBC1. When asked if they thought it “wrong†that in the era of the Scottish parliament a Scot should become Prime Minister of the whole of the UK 52% said…
Back Balls for Chancellor to cover yourself on Brown getting it The call here on Wednesday to back Alan Johnson at the then 18/1 as Tony Blair’s successor gets good coverage by Vicki Woods in the Telegraph this morning. This is what she writes:- “My favourite website is the curiously influential politicalbetting.com (influential because I’m quite convinced it played a part in Cameron’s capture of the Tory leadership). Anyway, it chirpily suggested only days ago that anyone who fancies an…
Isn’t there a little matter of the election rules to think about? Today’s chart shows the implied probability of Gordon Brown being elected next Labour leader based on the best betting odds over time. In the immediate aftermath of the 2005 General Election the certainty of Brown getting the job was rated at 82%. It then declined a little only to soar again to 80% at the time of the party conference last September. Doubts started to emerge following David…
Is this the man to take on Brown? Although I think that the balance of probability still lies with Gordon Brown to take over from Tony Blair I’m sufficiently uncertain to consider other choices. Certainly at current prices the non-Brown options look very attractive. I’ve just placed my first serious bet on the contest – on the new Education Secretary, Alan Johnson who can be had from a bookmaker at 18/1. The Betfair price is much tighter which is often…
One feature of yesterday’s local election results was the electoral peril of controlling a council. Labour lost a string of councils whilst being able to gain Lambeth after four years of a Liberal Democrat/Conservative coalition. The Conservatives, despite an excellent night in general, lost their sizable majority in Richmond to the Lib Dems, who in turn lost their stronghold in Islington. This may not be much new. Councils have always risked making unpopular local decisions which affect them in a…
Ben’s journey from Labour to the Tories Long-standing PB.C regulars who followed the end of the Donald Rumsfeld thread on Sunday evening will have been shocked to read the exchanges about Ben’s move from Labour to the Tories. For Ben was one of the earliest, and at times most prolific, contributors to the site. For a long period ahead of the May 2005 General Election his regular and lucid postings added to many people’s understanding of how the contest was…
What do people think of tonight’s PPB? This evening saw the much launch of Labour’s much hyped vehicle to attack David Cameron. If you did not see the party political broadcast you can download it here. I’ve played it several times now and I just cannot work out whether it’s very clever and is going to have an impact or whether it’s just boring. The central message seems to be – don’t trust this guy because he’ll say whatever those…
Was it just a tactic to deal with the pressure of the moment Cast your mind back to the events leading up to to Tony Blair’s dramatic announcement on September 30th 2004 that he would serve a full third term but would stand aside before the next election. For what Blair said in that short statement on the eve of him going into hospital totally dominates the current political environment. But was his commitment to step aside before the end…