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Category: Labour

Is there a cover-up over YouGov’s Labour members poll?

Is there a cover-up over YouGov’s Labour members poll?

Did the pollster find out something that is politically inconvenient? Last week the internet pollster, YouGov, carried out what appears to have been its first ever media-commissioned survey of Labour party members. These party-specific polls have proved to be extraordinarily valuable in the past – so much so that in the Tory leadership races of 2001 and 2005 YouGov got the final results to within 1%. But at the weekend there was just a fleeting reference to the survey in…

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Johnson tightens to 6/1 as Straw enters deputy race

Johnson tightens to 6/1 as Straw enters deputy race

YouGov: 56% of Labour members want Prescott to stay With the Observer reporting that Gordon Brown has been warned that his “long quest to become Labour leader and Prime Minister is at risk from the rising star of Alan Johnson..” there’s been a big move to the Education Secretary in the betting markets. After Johnson started yesterday at 10/1 to become next Labour leader the price has tightened overnight to 6/1. One bookmaker is still quoting 14/1 though that won’t…

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Should Eton Dave fear the Dorneywood postie?

Should Eton Dave fear the Dorneywood postie?

Why not a Frank Luntz Cameron-Johnson test? In a review of the Labour leadership in his weekly Times column today Mathew Parris suggests that a party led by the declared Deputy contender, Alan Johnson, would be a bigger threat to David Cameron than Gordon Brown. Commenting on the former postman to Dorneywood who became General Secretary of his union Parris writes “..whenever one happens to see or listen to this man he appears well-judged, capable, moderate and likable. He is…

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Who wins if Prescott goes?

Who wins if Prescott goes?

Could a contest now be a proxy vote on both Brown and Blair? The two big current issues in UK politics – Blair’s departure date and whether Brown will succeed him – could be brought to a head if the Deputy Leader and Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott steps aside and there is a contest. After a weekend of rising specualtion both Gordon Brown and Tony Blair have come to Prescott’s defence because it appears to be in the interest…

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PBC Guest slot: Introducing “Red Sky” – a “shy” Labour MP

PBC Guest slot: Introducing “Red Sky” – a “shy” Labour MP

Who’ll succeed John Prescott as Deputy Leader? You’ve heard of shy Tory voters. Well, I’m a shy Labour MP who’s been reading the site for a while. While Nick Palmer and to some extent Stewart Jackson seem willing to post under their own names with reckless abandon, most MPs are reticent about accumulating a trail of comments that can be dug up years later. And I don’t have the time for the running battles that most of you seem to…

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ICM has yet more poll gloom for Gordon

ICM has yet more poll gloom for Gordon

Poll shows the Tory lead more than doubling with him as leader Today’s monthly ICM poll in the Guardian has with changes on last month CON 38%(+4): LAB 34%(+2): LD20%(-4). This is in line with the trend of other recent polls showing the Tories moving forward although Labour has a better showing than the recent Populus or YouGov surveys. When the voting intention question was asked with Brown named as leader against Cameron’s Conservatives and Campbell’s Lib Dems the shares…

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Can Johnson pull a rabbit out of the hat on the bill?

Can Johnson pull a rabbit out of the hat on the bill?

Will my 18/1 long-shot stop another damaging rebellion? With the controversial Education Bill coming back to the Commons the next few days could be crucial for the leadership chances of Alan Johnson – currently in the second favourite slot and who I suggested was a good value bet at 18/1. The bill’s passage gives the new Education Secretary a great platform to build up his public profile and to show his political skills dealing with the most divisive domestic Labour…

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Why Gordon will never be leader

Why Gordon will never be leader

Has the Chancellor blown it through his natural prudence? In years to come will Gordon Brown look back on the second Wednesday of May 2006 as the time when he blew his best ever chance to become Labour leader and Prime Minister? Will he recall May 10th – just a week ago today when all the eyes were on him – as the moment he should have moved and sought to oust Blair? Will he remember the stony silence of…

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