Could 1 in 25 Labour supporters switch if there is no Blair? With Tony Blair reported this morning to be ready to announce the date when he will stand down it is worth asking whether this will be all good for the party in the polls. For a close look at detailed findings from this week’s YouGov poll suggests that the Prime Minister has a small but significant personal vote which will not be there when he is gone. These…
Is now the time to put more on? The chart, based on best betting prices, shows how punters are rating in terms of implied probability the Labour leadership chances of the the Education Secretary, Alan Johnson. After tipping him when his leadership price was 18/1 I’ve now gone into the market again. Johnson’s chances of winning are much better than 15/2 and as we see today with the Charles Clarke story, the pressure on Blair to go early is gathering…
Is raising nuclear deterrent issue the sure way to Number 10? Lots of analysis in the Sunday papers this morning on the reasons behind Gordon Brown’s decision to raise the British nuclear deterrent issue in his Mansion House speech. Given that opposition to an independent deterrent was only dropped from Labour’s policy portfolio after a bitter and long battle that ended 1989 the general view is that Gordon wants to provoke a left-wing challenge in the coming leadership contest which…
ICM’s data shows Tories leading by 11 points amongst females On the day Labour launched the next stage of its plan to deal with David Cameron ICM released full data from its June poll showing a big gender divide in support for the parties. Delegates arriving to hear the Tory leader’s “family friendly” speech yesterday were greeted at the door by a man dressed up as a Chameleon handing out leaflets. According to the Times “..the costume is terrific and…
Brown aide says the party could be out of power for 15 years? The main lead in the Guardian this morning is a report of comments made by one of Gordon Brown’s closest advisers, Michael Wills MP, at a fringe union conference meeting at the weekend that the party is on course to lose the next election. The former minster is reported to have said that voters have lost trust in the party, won’t listen to its message, and that…
Could he become PM without ever having to face a grilling? One of the hardest things about trying to predict the next General Election is that, extraordinarily, we know so little about Gordon Brown. If, as is his plan, he manages to move into the top job without having to go through the ardours of fighting a leadership election he will have managed to by-pass, yet again, situations where he would have faced fierce questioning. For as both the Tories…
Has he made the right call over England’s World Cup bid? You can’t help but feeling a bit sorry for Gordon over the timing of the World Cup. There he is in the final stages of his plan to take over the Labour leadership and along comes the contest which in the UK is the ultimate “English-fest”. With the question mark over his appeal to the electors as a whole being the main obstacle standing in the way of the…
What are we to make of the “Spin-Master’s” latest venture? With sharp moves on the “When Blair will go” betting markets to a 2007 departure the Prime Minster’s former top spinner, Alastair Campbell, has launched a “World Cup Blog” on the Labour Party web-site. Why should these two elements be connected you might ask? Well it’s clear that even after only two entries this is no ordinary football blog even though, like me, he is a life-long Burnley fan. It’s…