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Category: Labour

Could Blair face a challenge at next month’s conference?

Could Blair face a challenge at next month’s conference?

The Independent reports left-wing moves to press for an election A report by Colin Brown, Deputy Political Editor of the Independent, this morning says that “..demands for Tony Blair to quit over his support for US President George W Bush in the Middle East are to be taken to Labour’s annual conference next month in a direct challenge to his leadership by left-wing Labour campaigners.” He says that all constituency Labour parties are being sent an emergency resolution calling for…

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What’s a realistic price on Gordon?

What’s a realistic price on Gordon?

At what stage is it worth betting on the Chancellor? The above chart shows the best betting price available on Gordon Brown to be the next Labour leader shown as an implied probability. This morning on the Betfair betting exchange you could get 0.44/1 – which for those less familiar with betting prices means that an investment of £100 would produce a profit of £44 on top of getting your stake back if he made it. So is that good…

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Will John Reid’s “baggage” withstand the intensive scrutiny?

Will John Reid’s “baggage” withstand the intensive scrutiny?

How worried should punters be about the Home Secretary’s past? When Tony Blair finally announces his intentions the starting gun will be fired on an event unprecedented in UK politics – a mass leadership election in a party that will effectively choose a new Prime Minister. For the last times that new leaders have been chosen while their parties were in power the electorates were restricted to just MPs. It was the respective parliamentary parties that chose Jim Callaghan after…

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Guest slot on the Labour leadership by Paul Linford

Guest slot on the Labour leadership by Paul Linford

Could Johnson be the kingmaker, not the king? In the wake of last week’s terror raids, most Labour leadership speculation has inevitably centred on whether the episode has boosted the chances of Home Secretary John Reid – not least on this blog. In my regional newspaper columns this weekend, I myself wrote that momentum is building behind a Reid candidature, although I think it will take sharp drop in Labour’s poll ratings to persuade Labour members to opt for him…

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Betting on a Reid “terror plot” boost

Betting on a Reid “terror plot” boost

Is the Home Secretary worth his 2nd favourite status? The increased prominence that John Reid is getting as a result of his handling of the terror plot has caused his price on the Betfair betting exchange to tighten sharply. He started the day at about 13/1 and as of 2030 the last recorded trade on Betfair was at 4/1. The price has eased a touch since then but Reid is now the firm second favourite behind Gordon Brown to succeed…

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Should Gordon go for the Deputy job as well?

Should Gordon go for the Deputy job as well?

If Kinnock did it – why shouldn’t Brown? This might sound like a completely crazy idea, totally off the wall, but would not there be advantages for Gordon Brown if he followed the example of Neil Kinnock in 1983 and put himself forward for the Deputy’s job as well as the leadership? The idea of Gordon being deputy to anybody is so alien to how he is perceived that I have no doubt the bucket loads of scorn will be…

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Liberal defector said to be “in lead” for Deputy Labour job

Liberal defector said to be “in lead” for Deputy Labour job

Is the Guardian right about Peter Hain’s chances? The main story on the Guardian this morning is a report that the ex-Young Liberal President turned Labour minister, Peter Hain is now “in the lead” in the race to replace John Prescott as Labour’s Deputy leader and, presumably, Deputy Prime Minister. The career-minded Hain, who ditched the Liberals to join Labour in 1977, has, according to the report been “…assiduously courting the unions in the run up to the conference season….

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Will this be changed by “Labour minus Tony”?

Will this be changed by “Labour minus Tony”?

Will Labour get back on top with a new leader? The above chart represents the collective decisions of a very odd group of political gamblers – people who have bet on the next General Election even though though they know they will locking up their cash for several years at not particularly attractive prices. The odds they bet at are represented over time as an implied probability and the changes produce a graphic illustration of how the chances for the…

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