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Category: Labour

Is Glasgow ’07 being cancelled to help Tony?

Is Glasgow ’07 being cancelled to help Tony?

Does this mean that the change-over is being put back until July? The above illustrations were taken from the Labour party website which even this afternoon was still promoting the 2007 Spring Party Conference to prospective delegates and corporate sponsors. This is the second biggest event in the party’s annual calender and preparations seem to have been well advanced. The plan, potential corporate sponsors were being told, was “to incorporate Local Government, women and youth conferences, providing you the opportunity…

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Is somebody trying to make Gordon look less of a favourite?

Is somebody trying to make Gordon look less of a favourite?

Are betting odds being “managed” to influence the race Over the past two to three days there have been some very odd happenings on the £500,000 Labour leadership betting market on the Betfair – the leading betting exchange that usually sets the scene for other bookmakers. For as the chart shows the Brown price has eased considerably from 0.51/1 on Sunday to 0.58/1 where it has remained almost stuck. Now what makes this move remarkable from a betting market perspective…

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Will Populus wake up Labour’s leadership race?

Will Populus wake up Labour’s leadership race?

Are we going to get a poll that will confirm or refute Frank Luntz? In terms of political betting the key focus this morning is not on anything coming out of the Tories at Bournemouth – but on whether Gordon Brown will face a serious challenge in his quest to succeed Tony Blair and if so by whom? For we are talking here about who will be the next Prime Minister and we might get a better indication of how…

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Labour leaders get BrandIndex boost

Labour leaders get BrandIndex boost

Blair and Reid the big movers For all the reported infighting at Labour’s Manchester conference the latest BrandIndex figures from YouGov show a boost for all the main party leaders during the week. These are based on five-day rolling averages of more than 600 online interviews a day until yesterday – so the full impact will not be seen until after the weekend. John Reid, who spoke yesterday, got a huge boost and if that continues over the next few…

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Gordon Brown’s Manchester conference

Gordon Brown’s Manchester conference

Day by day – how punters views changed I’ve been working with the Guardian this afternoon on help with a graphic on how gamblers have changed their views on Gordon Brown’s leadership chances as the week has progressed. The only problem I’ve had is that they’ve wanted the prices in old fashioned fractional odds – not the decimal-type that we tend to use here. So if it is used tomorrow it will be a bit different from my chart above…

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ICM data shows Brown retaining just 60% of Labour ’05 voters

ICM data shows Brown retaining just 60% of Labour ’05 voters

New polling innovation shows problem for Ming as well In a major new way of presenting and collating polling information the detailed data from Friday’s ICM September poll in the Guardian, just out, gives a breakdown of what people will do based on how they voted in the 2005 General Election. The news is not good for the Fife neighbours, Gordon Brown and Ming Campbell. For only three out of five people who voted Labour in 2005 told ICM they…

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Markets move to June 2007 departure

Markets move to June 2007 departure

Will Gordon have to wait longer before he can go at Cameron? Comments in a Radio 4 interview by the Education Secretary and possible leadership challenger, Alan Johnson, that Tony Blair would stay longer than most people were expecting has led to active trading on the departure date and the “length of third term” spread betting markets. Johnson’s comments indicated a late summer departure which could deprive the new leader of taking over while the Commons is still sitting. It’s…

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New ICM poll has Tories still 4% ahead

New ICM poll has Tories still 4% ahead

But 70% of voters say it’s “time for change” With the Labour Conference due to start in Manchester on Sunday the first of several polls this weekend, ICM for the Guardian, shows little change on the last survey by the pollster last weekend. The party shares are: CON 36%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LD 22%(+1). The finding that should really worry Labour is that 70% of those in the survey said they thought is was “time for change”, if there were a…

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