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Category: Labour

Will the loans inquiry finally determine the exit date?

Will the loans inquiry finally determine the exit date?

How long before Blair is interviewed? There are worrying reports for Tony Blair in the Independent this morning about the way the police inquiry into the “cash for honours” affair is progressing with suggestions that one member of the Downing Street staff is proving “extremely helpful to the investigation”. In his report Andrew Grice quotes a source with knowledge of the police inquiry as saying “Only two ministers knew when a system of secret loans was set up. One was…

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Populus find huge gender gap over Gordon v Dave

Populus find huge gender gap over Gordon v Dave

Is this the result of Murdoch’s ferocious attacks on the Tory leader After a week which has seen savage criticism by the Murdoch press on David Cameron and positive media coverage generally of Gordon Brown the November Populus poll in the Times shows the following shares with changes on last month – CON 36% (nc): LAB 33% (-2): LD20 % (+2). So the trend is in line with recent YouGov, ICM and Communicate Research polls but with the Tory margin…

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Will I win my “Blair being arrested bet”?

Will I win my “Blair being arrested bet”?

How dangerous are things for the PM and his aides? Last July I put £50 on at 6/1 that Tony Blair would be arrested before the end of the year. It seemed worth a punt and the price though not generous appeared just about fair. Now things are moving quickly with threats of resignation said in to be in the air from the DPP if there is political interference with the process. It’s clear from the leaks that have been…

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How much damage has Rupert done to Dave?

How much damage has Rupert done to Dave?

Will Populus record a Brown leadership bounce? For polling geeks like me the next few surveys are going to be fascinating and might be good pointers to the future. For the transition from Tony to Gordon is well under way and he’s now being portrayed daily in the media mostly in a positive light as the PM in waiting. If there is going to be a Brown succession bounce then we might see the first signs of it. This could…

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Will a coronation play badly in Gordon Street?

Will a coronation play badly in Gordon Street?

What happens if the ratings aren’t turned round? How are voters going to react to what is looking increasingly inevitable by the day – that Gordon Brown will assume the Labour leadership and become Prime Minister without a cabinet level challenge? In a main editorial this weekend the Guardian considered the implications of what’s likely to happen under the headline “Sleepwalking towards succession” and argued strongly that “the party could gain by using the transition to consider and test its…

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What’s behind Cameron’s “love a yob” move?

What’s behind Cameron’s “love a yob” move?

Is raising “hug-a-hoodie” again good or bad politics? Given the way that David Cameron’s “hug a hoodie” speech four months ago seemed to attract so much derision why is the Tory leader going back onto the same territory with his latest “tough love” for yobs speech? He’s called for “a lot more love” to be shown to young offenders as part of an effort to encourage good behaviour and has suggested that there is a more understanding approach as to…

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Sun story sets off a rush to back Blears

Sun story sets off a rush to back Blears

The shortest MP sees her price shorten from 50/1 to 7/1 in just two hours The Salford MP and Labour chair who shares with Lib Dem, Sarah Teather, the honour of being Britain’s shortest MP, Hazel Blears, has seen the price on her becoming Deputy Labour leader shorten from 50/1 to 7/1 during the morning. This follows a report in today’s Sun quoting someone described as “a friend of the Chancellor”: “Gordon will not be backing any one candidate in…

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Brown’s price tightens to pre-Cameron levels

Brown’s price tightens to pre-Cameron levels

Is the Iraq debate encouraging punters to back the Chancellor? With Tony Blair preparing to face a difficult session in the House of Commons tonight on calls for an inquiry in Iraq the best betting price on Gordon Brown being Tony Blair’s successor has tightened to 0.35/1 – a level that it has been at only once before since David Cameron’s election as Tory leader on December 6th. The price has been moving in this direction for the past three…

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