Could the budget “masterstroke” have scuppered Gordon’s chances? What a difference two days make? After all the cheers from his fellow Labour MPs on Wednesday there’s a massive blow to Brown and his party from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph this morning. For in the first poll since the budget there is a 2% increase in the Tory lead. These are the figures compared with the last survey from the internet pollster – CON 39% (+1): LAB 31% (-1): LD…
Can Gordon ignore the attacks from the left? With the Brown betting price for Labour leader now moving to 0.2/1 there’s a sharp attack on his strategy from someone who, until now, was one of the Chancellor’s biggest and most influential media supporters – Polly Toynbee of the Guardian. Part of her piece is reproduced above (click on it to read the whole article) and her point can be summed up in on sentence – “For the sake of a…
Is it going to help or hinder him in his quest for the top job? Our chart shows the betting price on Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership over the past three days and reflects the very mixed feelings there are amongst punters. For as can be seen there has been a tightening on the Brown price but he is still not quite as firm a favourite as he was on Monday before the Turnbull “Brown like Stalin” story broke….
Can Brown put the polls and the Turnbull attack behind him? After what the Times is calling “Black Tuesday for the Chancellor” Gordon has a chance this afternoon to steady the nerves of his party and put his bid for the leadership beyond doubt. For the budget is one of those great set-piece parliamentary occasions and is the only time during the year when the Chancellor and the leader of the opposition face each other across the chamber. No doubt…
What’s the cumulative effect of stories like this? On top of the overnight news of the disastrous ICM poll figures for Brown there is this attack on him this morning in the Financial Times which has the potential to be seriously damaging and to stick. For a former permanent secretary to the Treasury and cabinet secretary to go on the record with an attack like this in the FT is quite unprecedented and at the very least will provide more…
Will the “politics of envy” really lose votes for Labour? With several leading Labour figures urging that the party should make David Cameron’s privileged background a key differentiator at the next election there’s been a warning against this strategy by the only Cabinet member not to go to university, Alan Johnson. According to the Independent the education secretary made a speech yesterday that “will be seen as a warning to Labour not to make personal attacks on David Cameron and…
After Miliband is Jack Straw going to be the next ABBGC? Yesterday I rearranged my betting on the Labour leadership and put another £700 on Gordon Brown. The price will surely tighten from the current 0.26/1 immediately following the budget and current levels look quite generous. I also put £35 on Jack Straw yesterday at an average price of 90/1 after reading the above piece by the Daily Mail writer, Quentin Letts, at the online magazine, The First Post. My…
Who’s going to come second in the Labour race? With Brown’s succession looking like a foregone conclusion there’s one issue that is still wide open – will there be a contest or will Gordon get his coronation? The challenge is to find a way of betting on this in the absence of a specific market on the issue. This is where Cantor Spreadfair’s Labour leadership market comes in. It might look a little complicated but it does provide a range…